Romania's Q3 GDP rises 2.9% y/y - provisional data

On an unadjusted basis, Romania's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 1.1% on the year, compared to a 3.8% increase recorded in the like period of 2022, the statistical board, INS, said in a statement.

Growth in the review period was mainly driven by a 12% annual increase in gross fixed capital formation, which contributed 3.7 percentage points (pp) to the unadjusted GDP growth rate. A 0.9% increase in final consumption expenditure of households contributed 0.5 pp.

The agricultural sector’s output saw a 6.9% expansion, while the construction sector's production rose by 8.1% on the year in July-September. The output of the industrial sector shrank by 1.8%.

The imports of goods and services fell by an annual 6.7%, while exports decreased by 2.7% year-on-year during the third quarter of 2023.

On a seasonally adjusted annual comparison basis, Romania’s GDP grew by a real 2.2% on the year in the first nine months of 2023. The unadjusted growth rate came in at 1.4% as gross capital formation spearheaded the increase with a contribution of 2.8 pp. Household spending and the collective final consumption of the general government were also growth drivers, adding 1.7 pp and 0.7 pp, respectively. Changes in inventories accounted for the main negative contribution after taking away 4.9 pp from GDP growth.

When compared to the previous quarter, the Romanian economy expanded by a real 0.9% in the third quarter of 2023, following a 1.6% increase in the second quarter.

The statistical board's provisional data marks an upward revision of its earlier flash estimate of 2.1% annual GDP growth on a seasonally-adjusted basis during the third quarter of 2023 and an unadjusted growth rate of 0.2%.

Romania’s economic output is expected to increase by an estimated 2% in full year 2023, finance ministry analysts said in November, decreasing their forecast for 2.8% growth issued in October.

The country's economy expanded by an annual 4.7% in 2022 and by 5.8% in 2021.

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