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M&A, Privatisation, IPOs
Chinese investments in SEE
War in Ukraine
Following a tepid recovery in 2021, Southeast Europe's mergers and acquisitions (M&A) market has been performing unevenly in 2022. In Romania, the region's biggest market, the value of M&A deals in the first nine months of 2022 is estimated at $4 billion, down from $5.4 billion in the like period a year earlier, by global consultancy Ernst&Young. However, the unprecedented amount and mix of available capital have increased investors’ ability to do deals in a volatile environment, especially for players eyeing long-term growth.
We anticipate unprecedented activity in the next years.
Romania's most dynamic sectors set to remain on investors' agenda are IT&C, industrial products, energy, real estate, health and pharma.
The estimated value of Romania's M&A market in Jan-Sept 2022, according to Ernst&Young
As the fourth wave of Covid-19 cases in Southeast Europe subsides, the region's economic recovery continues, though at a slower pace than in 2021. Continuing fiscal support and returning consumer and business confidence are boosting growth, though tourism - a key industry for many countries in the region - remains at below-crisis levels. On the downside, accelerating inflation, under the strong impact of supply-side shocks and soaring energy prices, and shrunken consumption are exerting pressure on the economies.
As electricity prices across Southeast Europe are surging, governments in the region are seeking ways to cushion the blow for the business and for households. Serbia's government recommended to state-owned power utility Elektroprivreda Srbije to cap electricity prices for industrial consumers at 75 euro per MWh until the end of June. In Romania the government limited the price of electricity at 0.68 lei per kWh and increased the volume of consumption to which subsidised retail prices apply to 500 kW per month from 300 kW. Bulgaria's government said it will support local businesses hit by the energy crisis by up to 2 bln levs (1 bln euro) between October and March. In December, Bulgaria's parliament decided to freeze the prices of electricity, central heating and water for households at their current levels until the end of March.
The sum Enel should pay Romania for a minority stake in Electrica Muntenia Sud
Reading between the lines of the official statistics and companies' balance sheets, the industry officials and market experts offer their insights on the main trends shaping markets in Southeast Europe.
Expenditures on IoT in CEE, according to IDC estimates.
"Most of the SEE countries are running high trade deficits with China and this puts the question to what extent it makes sense to have too much further engagement of China in the region."
In 2013 Chinese president Xi Jinping unveiled the One Belt and One Road Initiative - a development strategy under which China plans to invest hundreds of billions of euro in other countries in Asia and in Europe in a bid to strengthen its role in global affairs. The initiative, which later became populat as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) focuses on projects in transport infrastructure, energy, iron and steel. Countries in SEE fall within the strategy's scope, with Serbia attracting the most generous share of Chinese investments.
"For Serbia, it is of utmost importance to be invited to become part of the Chinese international initiative One Belt, One Road."
Expected amount of Chinese investments in Serbian infrastructure
As Russia's invasion of Ukraine is sending shock waves across Europe, Southeast Europe is bracing up to bear the brunt of the economic, financial and security consequences. The economies in the region are heavily reliant on Russian gas and for most of them Russia is a major trading partner and investor. For tourism-dependent economies like Bulgaria, Croatia and Montenegro, it is also a key feeder market. The indirect consequences of higher energy and raw material prices and supply chain disruptions are expected to impact production, further fuel inflation and slow down recovery. The onset of the Russian assault sent the regional stocks into a sharp fall, flights to and from Russia were discontinued, Moldova and Serbia suspended wheat exports, and Russia's Sberbank exited Southeast Europe. Thousands of refugees started pouring into Romania and Moldova. NATO said that it is deploying additional defensive land and air forces on its eastern flank.
For the first time ever, the European Union will finance the purchase and delivery of weapons and other equipment to a country that is under attack. This is a watershed moment.
No minister in my cabinet can use the word ''operation" when soldiers have been killed.
We defend our freedom, our land. We need effective international assistance. [...] Appealed to the Bucharest Nine for defense aid, sanctions, pressure on the aggressor. Together we have to put Russia at the negotiating table. We need an anti-war coalition.
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