Erste sees Serbian economy growing 3.3% in 2024

"After stagnating last year, consumption should become the main driver of GDP growth in 2024, as disinflation and wage growth boost real disposable income and credit conditions improve. Moderate boost to growth is expected from the investment side as well," Erste analysts said in a research note published last week.

"Overall risks seem balanced, with domestic risks tilted to the upside, and external ones in the opposite direction," the analysts said.

Serbia's economic output grew by a real 3.8% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2023, the country's statistical office said in a flash estimate last month. It is expected to release more details on the gross domestic product (GDP) growth at the end of February.

"While we wait for the end of February and the release of the detailed structural performance, macro data from 4Q23 points to stable performance of industry, while retail consumption finally managed to climb towards positive territory again. On the external side, trade balance data shows slightly deteriorating trend compared to the previous quarter," Erste analysts said.

They noted that the contraction in both exports and imports was still visible in the final quarter of 2023, but at an almost similar pace, resulting in a neutral net contribution to growth.

The government in Belgrade said in January it sees Serbia's economic growth quickening to 4.3% in 2026, from projected 4.0% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2024.

Also in January, the World Bank said it expects Serbia's economy to expand by 3.0% in 2024, and by 3.8% in 2025.