UPDATE 1 - Romania's Q3 GDP Falls by Estimated 7.1% Y/Y, Beats Expectations

“We have expected to see a flat quarterly growth rate in the last quarter of 2009. However, today’s data suggests that the chances for a positive quarterly growth rate in the last quarter of this year have increased,” Raiffeisen Research said in a note to investors.

“There are increasing chances to enter on an upward trend of GDP already in the last quarter of 2009 in quarter-on-quarter terms, although the annual growth rate would remain in the negative territory until second half of 2010.”

The third-quarter GDP fell by just 0.7% from the second quarter, the INS said. It will issue preliminary detailed data for Romania’s third-quarter and nine-month GDP on December 3.

The year-on-year comparison is based on seasonally unadjusted data, while the quarter-on-quarter figure is based on seasonally adjusted data.

In order to comply with the requirements of the European Union, beginning in 2009 INS started publishing quarterly flash-estimates of the GDP growth in the respective quarter compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year as a gross index, and compared to the previous quarter as a seasonally adjusted index.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said last week it has lowered its forecast for Romania’s economic fall this year to a range of 7.5%-8.0% compared to its previous forecast of a 8.5% contraction. Romania's National Prognoses Commission sees the country's economy shrinking by a real 7.7% this year after a 7.1% real growth in 2008.

“The GDP contraction for 2009 could be close to 7.0%, better than our expectation of 7.5%,” Raiffeisen Research said.

“We expect the economic recovery to come through the external channel (higher exports driven mainly by the recovery of eurozone economy, with positive effects on industrial output in Romania), as there are low chances to see a strong recovery of domestic demand in the next quarters,” it added.

The country's economy contracted by an annual 7.6% in real terms in the first half of 2009, mainly on weak performance of agriculture and construction industry.