October 1 (SeeNews) - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects economic contraction in Southeastern Europe (SEE) to slow down to 0.1% next year from 7.5% projected for 2009, the global lender said on Thursday.
"Emerging Europe has been hit particularly hard by the drop in capital inflows. This led to major contractions in the Baltic economies, Bulgaria, and Romania, although exchange rates acted as a shock absorber in economies with flexible regimes," the IMF said in the autumn edition of twice-a-year World Economic Outlook.
The SEE economy grew by a real 6.1% last year, the same growth rate as in 2007, the IMF said in the report.
"In emerging Europe, following a contraction in real GDP of 5.25 percent in 2009, a return to positive growth is expected in 2010. [...] Over the medium term, GDP growth is likely to return to precrisis rates only gradually, as supply remains sluggish and balance sheet adjustment continues to weigh on demand."
Details from the report follow:
GDP GROWTH (in pct)
|
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
Albania |
6.3 |
6.8 |
0.7 |
2.2 |
Bosnia and Herzegovina |
6.8 |
5.5 |
-3.0 |
0.5 |
Bulgaria |
6.2 |
6.0 |
-6.5 |
-2.5 |
Croatia |
5.5 |
2.4 |
-5.2 |
0.4 |
Macedonia |
5.9 |
4.9 |
-2.5 |
2.0 |
Moldova |
3.0 |
7.2 |
-9.0 |
0.0 |
Montenegro |
10.7 |
7.5 |
-4.0 |
-2.0 |
Romania |
6.2 |
7.1 |
-8.5 |
0.5 |
Serbia |
6.9 |
5.4 |
-4.0 |
1.5 |
Slovenia |
6.8 |
3.5 |
-4.7 |
0.6 |
CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION (annual average, in pct)
|
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
Albania |
2.9 |
3.4 |
1.7 |
2.0 |
Bosnia and Herzegovina |
1.5 |
7.4 |
0.9 |
1.6 |
Bulgaria |
7.6 |
12.0 |
2.7 |
1.6 |
Croatia |
2.9 |
6.1 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
Macedonia |
2.3 |
8.3 |
-0.5 |
2.0 |
Moldova |
12.4 |
12.7 |
1.4 |
7.7 |
Montenegro |
3.5 |
9.0 |
3.4 |
2.1 |
Romania |
4.8 |
7.8 |
5.5 |
3.6 |
Serbia |
6.5 |
11.7 |
9.9 |
7.3 |
Slovenia |
3.6 |
5.7 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE (as pct of GDP)
|
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
Albania |
-9.1 |
-14.1 |
-11.5 |
-8.0 |
Bosnia and Herzegovina |
-12.7 |
-14.7 |
-8.8 |
-9.1 |
Bulgaria |
-25.2 |
-25.5 |
-11.4 |
-8.3 |
Croatia |
-7.6 |
-9.4 |
-6.1 |
-5.4 |
Macedonia |
-7.2 |
-13.1 |
-10.6 |
-9.7 |
Moldova |
-17.0 |
-17.7 |
-11.8 |
-11.9 |
Montenegro |
-29.4 |
-29.6 |
-16.0 |
-11.0 |
Romania |
-13.5 |
-12.4 |
-5.5 |
-5.6 |
Serbia |
-15.6 |
-17.3 |
-9.1 |
-10.6 |
Slovenia |
-4.2 |
-5.5 |
-3.0 |
-4.7 |