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SEE Economic Contraction To Slow Down to 0.1% in 2010 - IMF

Oct 1, 2009, 3:00:33 PMArticle by Iva Doneva
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October 1 (SeeNews) - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects economic contraction in Southeastern Europe (SEE) to slow down to 0.1% next year from 7.5% projected for 2009, the global lender said on Thursday.

SEE Economic Contraction To Slow Down to 0.1% in 2010 - IMF

"Emerging Europe has been hit particularly hard by the drop in capital inflows. This led to major contractions in the Baltic economies, Bulgaria, and Romania, although exchange rates acted as a shock absorber in economies with flexible regimes," the IMF said in the autumn edition of twice-a-year World Economic Outlook.

The SEE economy grew by a real 6.1% last year, the same growth rate as in 2007, the IMF said in the report.

"In emerging Europe, following a contraction in real GDP of 5.25 percent in 2009, a return to positive growth is expected in 2010. [...] Over the medium term, GDP growth is likely to return to precrisis rates only gradually, as supply remains sluggish and balance sheet adjustment continues to weigh on demand."

Details from the report follow:

GDP GROWTH (in pct)

2007 2008 2009 2010
Albania 6.3 6.8 0.7 2.2
Bosnia and Herzegovina 6.8 5.5 -3.0 0.5
Bulgaria 6.2 6.0 -6.5 -2.5
Croatia 5.5 2.4 -5.2 0.4
Macedonia 5.9 4.9 -2.5 2.0
Moldova 3.0 7.2 -9.0 0.0
Montenegro 10.7 7.5 -4.0 -2.0
Romania 6.2 7.1 -8.5 0.5
Serbia 6.9 5.4 -4.0 1.5
Slovenia 6.8 3.5 -4.7 0.6

CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION (annual average, in pct)

2007 2008 2009 2010
Albania 2.9 3.4 1.7 2.0
Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.5 7.4 0.9 1.6
Bulgaria 7.6 12.0 2.7 1.6
Croatia 2.9 6.1 2.8 2.8
Macedonia 2.3 8.3 -0.5 2.0
Moldova 12.4 12.7 1.4 7.7
Montenegro 3.5 9.0 3.4 2.1
Romania 4.8 7.8 5.5 3.6
Serbia 6.5 11.7 9.9 7.3
Slovenia 3.6 5.7 0.5 1.5

CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE (as pct of GDP)

2007 2008 2009 2010
Albania -9.1 -14.1 -11.5 -8.0
Bosnia and Herzegovina -12.7 -14.7 -8.8 -9.1
Bulgaria -25.2 -25.5 -11.4 -8.3
Croatia -7.6 -9.4 -6.1 -5.4
Macedonia -7.2 -13.1 -10.6 -9.7
Moldova -17.0 -17.7 -11.8 -11.9
Montenegro -29.4 -29.6 -16.0 -11.0
Romania -13.5 -12.4 -5.5 -5.6
Serbia -15.6 -17.3 -9.1 -10.6
Slovenia -4.2 -5.5 -3.0 -4.7

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