The growth forecast for the current year has been improved as a result of a better performance in the construction and services sectors, the National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis, CNSP, an analyst unit within the finance ministry, said in an update to its 2022-2026 forecast published on Thursday.
The increase in both construction and services contributed to a 5 percentage-point increase in the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), mitigating the 0.9 percentage-point decrease in the industrial and agriculture sectors compared to August estimations.
Romania’s GDP is expected to total 1.396 trillion lei ($282.88 million/284.16 million euro) this year, the Commission said. Final household consumption is expected to grow by 4.4%, while private and governmental consumption is estimated to rise by 5.4% and 0.8%, respectively.
The gross added value of the service sector was estimated to increase by an annual 7.7%, with a slight slowdown in the second part of the year, while construction was estimated to grow by 6.1%, due to accelerated market activity in the second half of 2022.
The industry sector was estimated to drop by 1.2% on the year, while agriculture was severely affected by droughts, leading to a revision of previous estimates, to a 12.8% decrease.
Exports of goods and services are expected to grow by 9.2% in 2022, while imports are seen as increasing by 8.2%.
The analysts also expect inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), to reach 15.2% at the end of the year, rising 2.3 percentage points over the previous estimate. By the end of 2023, analysts expect CPI to drop to 6.2%, averaging 8.2% for the entire year. Romania’s consumer prices rose by 15.88% on the year in September, compared to a 15.32% annual increase in August, according to national statistical office data.
For 2023, analysts at CNSP expect the local economy to expand by 2.8%, lowering their previous estimate by 1.1 percentage points due to a worsening economic climate in Germany and Italy, which are Romania's main commercial partners.
Romania’s economy grew by 5.1% on the year in the second quarter of 2022, compared to a revised 15.3% annual increase during the same period last year, the statistical board said earlier. The country’s GDP rose by 5.9% in 2021, compared to a 3.9% contraction in 2020.
