EBRD cuts Albania's 2019 GDP growth forecast to 2.8%

Economic growth is projected at 3.5% next year, down from 3.9% expected in May, EBRD said in its November 2019 Regional Economic Prospects report.

The growth of Albania’s economy accelerated to 4.1% in 2018 from 3.8% in 2017.

“The moderation in growth relative to the most recent years is due mainly to a combination of the economic slowdown of Italy and the rest of the eurozone, the further delay in starting EU membership talks, and internal risks associated with both contingent liabilities stemming from unsolicited public-private partnership programmes and the ongoing political instability,” the EBRD noted.

During the first half of 2019, Albania's economy expanded by 2.4% year-on-year, the EBRD said, adding that the slowdown was mainly a consequence of weaker power generation, combined with the high base effect from 2018, while tourism remained an important contributor.

Investment and export growth decelerated, too. Unemployment continued to decline gradually but remained at double-digit levels, averaging 11.8% in the first half of the year.

The EBRD also said that despite primary surpluses in recent years, public debt remains high, at 66.9% of GDP in June 2019, excluding arrears.

Economic growth in Southeast Europe is seen decelerating from 3.3% in 2019 to 3.0% in 2020, but still remaining above the forecast average growth of all EBRD regions, of 2.4% and 2.9% in 2019 and 2020, respectively.

The region of Southeast Europe in the EBRD's report comprises Bulgaria, Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia.