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Croatian think-tank lifts Q3 GDP growth forecast to 2.6%

Author Iskra Pavlova
Croatian think-tank lifts Q3 GDP growth forecast to 2.6% GDP, Creative Commons.

ZAGREB (Croatia), November 18 (SeeNews) - Croatian think-tank Institute of Economics Zagreb (EIZ) said on Monday it is lifting its forecast for the country's economic growth in the third quarter to 2.6% year-on-year based on data for July, August and September, from 2.4% predicted earlier.

The previous forecast was made in October and was based on the cumulative reading for July and August of EIZ's Coincident Economic Index, CEIZ.

"Based on CEIZ index movements, we expect the annual growth rate of real GDP to amount, in the third quarter of 2019, to 2.6 percent, which is stronger than the GDP growth rate of 2.4 percent in the second quarter of 2019," EIZ said in a statement.

"Seasonally adjusted data indicate that, compared to the previous quarter, GDP in the third quarter of 2019 rose by 0.7 percent," the think-tank said.

The CEIZ aims to provide timely information on the current business cycle conditions. Its value changes simultaneously with the business cycle, thus serving as an indicator of the present state of the economy. 

Last week, Croatia's central bank also said that the country's economic growth had accelerated in the third quarter, compared to the second quarter, but did not provide any figures.

The Croatian economy expanded by a surprising 3.9% on the year in the first quarter of 2019 and cooled down to a 2.4% annual increase in the second quarter, the country's statistical office reported earlier. It is expected to release GDP data for the third quarter at the end of November.

In October, the central bank slightly lowered its 2019 forecast for Croatia's economic growth to 3.0% from the previously anticipated 3.1%, due to expectations of stronger domestic consumption and weakening foreign demand.

The revision is in line with the latest estimates of the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the European Commission, which expect Croatia's economy to grow by 2.9%-3.0% this year.