CFA Romania analysts improve 2022 GDP growth forecast to 4.5%

"Against the backdrop of expectations of a strong slowdown in the global economy, the macroeconomic confidence indicator continued its decline, registering values close to historical lows - an evolution in line with the evolution of global confidence indicators. In line with the decrease in confidence in the economy, economic growth expectations also decreased - from 4.5% in 2022 to 1.6% in 2023," CFA Romania's vice-president Adrian Codirlasu said in a press release.

In its previous macroeconomic confidence survey published in October, CFA analysts forecast a GDP rise of 4% in 2022 and a 6.1% budget deficit. CFA analysts' latest expectations are more pessimistic than those of government, which targets 4.6% economic growth this year.

Earlier this month, the government lowered its 2022 budget deficit target to 5.74%/GDP from previously estimated 5.84%, in a revision of the state budget for this year.

For 2023, CFA analysts forecast economic growth of 1.6% and a budget deficit of 5.8% of GDP.

The CFA macroeconomic confidence index for October dropped to 33.3 points, from 34.7 points in September, the association said.

The analysts said they expect an average inflation of 10.56% for the next 12 months. Romania's consumer prices rose 15.32% on the year in October, compared to 15.88% in September, according to the latest data available from the national statistical office.

CFA analysts expect an exchange rate of 5 lei per euro in the next six months and 5.0652 lei per euro in the next 12 months.

The CFA Society Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index, first released by CFA Society Romania in May 2011, is an indicator that aims at quantifying financial analysts' expectations regarding economic activity in Romania for a year. The index takes values between 0 (no confidence) and 100 ​(complete confidence in the Romanian economy) and is compiled based on six questions regarding current conditions of business and labour market; expectations about business, labour market, personal income and personal wealth.

(1 euro=4.9266 lei)