CFA Romania analysts forecast worsening economic activity

The index of analysts' expectations regarding the economic situation in Romania in the next 12 months measured 33.3 points in August, down 10.8 points compared to July, CFA said in a monthly survey. Compared with August 2018, the index was 9.3 points lower.

The macroeconomic confidence indicator fell by 5.5 points month-on-month to 42.8 points in August, influenced by a mixed perception of the current economic situation - an indicator which fell by 5.3 points on the month to 61.7 points in August.

The macroeconomic confidence indicator was 7.2 points higher in August compared to the same month last year, while the current conditions index was 3.1 points lower year-on-year.

The CFA analysts said they expect, on average, inflation of 4.03% in the year ending in September 2020.

Romania's consumer prices rose by 3.9% year-on-year in August, compared to an increase of 4.1% in the previous month, data from the national statistical office showed.

The CFA analysts expect an exchange rate of 4.7835 lei ($1.12/ 1.01 euro) per euro in the next six months and 4.8243 lei per euro in the next twelve months.

The CFA Society Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index, first released by CFA Society Romania in May 2011, is an indicator that aims at quantifying financial analysts' expectations regarding economic activity in Romania for a time horizon of one year.

The index takes values between 0 (no confidence) and 100 ​(complete confidence in the Romanian economy) and is calculated based on six questions regarding current conditions of business and labour market; expectations about business, labour market, personal income and personal wealth.

(1 euro = 4.7439 lei)