Bulgaria Expects Real GDP Growth of 4.7-5.8% in 2009-2011 Under Optimistic Scenario

Under a pessimistic scenario, if the external environment deteriorates considerably, Bulgaria's economic growth may be 2.1% next year before accelerating to 3.6% in 2010 and 5.1% in 2011, the Convergence Programme for 2009 - 2011 posted on the Finance Ministry's website indicated. Under this scenario the government will loosen its fiscal policy and will target budget surplus of 1.6% of GDP in 2009, to be cut to 1.1% in 2010 and 0.1% in 2011.

"We expect the global financial crisis will its have its strongest negative impact on the real economy in 2009. The main channels through which it is expected to affect the Bulgarian economy are investment demand and lower inflow of foreign capital," the programme said.

MACROECONOMIC FORECAST UNDER OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO:

MACROECONOMIC FORECAST UNDER PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO: