ANALYST FORECAST - Romanian C-Bank Unlikely To Further Lift Key Rate at Upcoming Meeting

The central bank decided to raise its key interest rate to 10.25% from 10.00% at the very end of July due to stubbornly high inflation, which topped 9% that month before slowing to 8.02% in August. It has raised its benchmark rate by a total of 2.75 percentage points since the beginning of the year.

Following are comments on the probable outcome of the bank's Thursday meeting from four analysts polled by SeeNews:

RADU LIMPEDE, ECONOMIC ANALYST, INITIAL ADVISORY CONSULTANCY COMPANY:

"It is clear that the central bank will not hike further the key interest rate, but it would also be too early to lower it. I think BNR will wait some more to see how the situation on the international markets develops," Limpede said, adding that the attention is now focused on the U.S. banking crisis and the bailout plans of the Federal Reserve.

NICOLAIE-ALEXANDRU CHIDESCIUC, SENIOR ECONOMIST WITH ING BANK ROMANIA:

"I think that the central bank will maintain the key rate at 10.25%, based on an improved inflationary outlook - governor Mugur Isarescu recently said BNR might revise downwards its end-year inflation forecast."

However, the wage growth in the last couple of months and the government's decision to raise pensions a month early from October 1 are increasing the risk for a rate hike, "and this risk is significant," Chidesciuc said.

ING Romania sees the country's inflation at the year-end rising by 6.0%, below the central bank's forecast of 6.6%, and slowing to 5.0% by mid-2009.

MIHAI TANASESCU, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND REPRESENTATIVE FOR ROMANIA:

"In my opinion the central bank will leave the key rate unchanged; I think the BNR is not going to give out any signals that inflation will increase."

IONUT POPESCU, ECONOMIST, JOURNALIST, FORMER MINISTER OF FINANCE:

"I expect the key rate to remain unchanged. I think that the pre-election moves of the government have already been factored into the previous rate hikes."

"At the year-end I don't think the inflation will rise more than 7%," Popescu said, adding that the inflation has already started to moderate.