ANALYSIS - Moldova's Parliament Unlikely To Elect President on Monday, Political Deadlock To Continue

Lupu, Democratic Party leader and former Parliament Speaker nominated by Moldova's pro-West government coalition, is the sole candidate for head of state in the December 7 elections. In the first vote held in October the coalition failed to win enough support for him in the chamber.

The coalition comprising the Democratic Party, the Liberal Party, the Liberal Democratic Party and Our Moldova Alliance, controls 53 of the 101 seats in the chamber, short of the 61-seat majority needed to elect the president. Opposition Communist Party, which has 48 seats, said earlier this week it would not support Lupu.

"The chances that the president will be elected on Monday are very small, because nothing has changed in the parliamentary fraction of the Communist Party," Igor Munteanu, political analyst at Chisinau-based non-governmental Institute for Development and Social Initiatives IDIS Viitorul, told SeeNews.

"It’s not important already whether they will elect a president or not. The focus of the power in the country is moving slowly to the parliament and government from the president. If the president is not elected, the status of this post will lose its importance for the population," the head of non-governmental Institute for Public Policy in Chisinau, Arcadie Barbarosie, said.

The impoverished ex-Soviet country held parliamentary elections twice this year. The Communists, which governed Moldova since 2001, won 60 seats in the parliament elected in April. The chamber was dissolved after two unsuccessful attempts by the Communists to elect the next head of state.

A new legislature was elected in a snap vote in July, bringing to power the pro-West coalition. If its second attempt to elect the president fails, the parliament should be dissolved no ealier than June and new elections are to be called.

Moldova's uncertain political environment has made foreign investors stay on the sidelines until the situation stabilises. The political stalemate coupled with the global financial crisis, which led to almost 8.0% contraction of the country's economy in the first half of 2009.

"I don’t think that new elections will negatively influence the economic situation […] The world will not end if a president is not elected," Munteanu said. "We will have functioning government and parliament until new elections aer called. The elections could be called by the end of the year."

His opinion was echoed by Barbarosie: "Nothing terrible will happen in case the president is not elected, the government and the parliament will continue their work."

Nicu Popescu, research fellow at London-based European Council of Foreign Relations, added: "From a political point of view, I don't think it [a failure to elect president] would be catastrophic. [...] We don't have to be afraid that Communists will come back to power if new elections are called."

"New elections, however, would be very bad for the country’s economy, for the country’s attempts to put an end to the crisis," Popescu said.

Earlier this month, Moldova’s acting President Mihai Ghimpu, from the Liberal Party, proposed to elect the head of state by simple majority, aiming to break the political deadlock. He signed a decree to set up a commission that will draft the respective amendments to the constitution. Ghimpu said that if the chamber fails to endorse the proposed amendments, he will initiate a referendum to adopt a new constitution.

"In case a president is not elected, I think the efforts of the parliament will re-directed to amending the constitution," Munteanu said.

"If they succeed to amend the constitution, there will be no need of new elections."

"The coalition has enough instruments to set a date for new elections when it is comfortable for them. So, I think, it’s better for the Communists to support Lupu now," Barbarosie said.