ECONOMIC OUTLOOK - EU Sees Economies of Romania, Slovenia Stabilising in 2010, Bulgaria's GDP To Shrink Further

November 3 (SeeNews) - The European Commission said on Tuesday it expects the economies of the EU members Romania and Slovenia to stabilise next year, while Bulgaria’s economy is likely to contract further.

In its autumn report the Commission sees Slovenia’s economy growing by 1.3% in 2010 after contracting by 7.4% this year. Romania's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to fall by 8.0% in 2009 but to edge up by 0.5% next year. The Commission expects Bulgaria's GDP to fall by 5.9% in 2009 and by 1.1% in 2010.

The three countries are so far the only members of the EU in Southeastern Europe. Slovenia joined the EU in 2004 and the two Black Sea countries followed in 2007.

The Commission projects that the EU economy will emerge from recession in the second half of this year, although for 2009 as a whole, GDP is still set to fall by some 4.0%. The near-term rebound in activity follows from improvements in the external environment and financial conditions, as well as from the significant fiscal and monetary policy measures put in place.

“The EU economy is coming out of recession. This owes much to the ambitious measures taken by governments, central banks and the EU that have not only prevented a systemic meltdown but have kick-started the recovery. However, the road ahead is a challenging one,” EU Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs, Joaquin Almunia, said in the report.

“To maintain momentum and support the sustainability of the recovery, it is essential that we fully implement all announced measures and complete the repair of the banking sector. We must also begin to look more towards the medium-term, and consider how best to address the adverse effects that the crisis has had on labour markets, public finances and potential growth,” Almunia added.

The main factors behind the recession are the worsening of the global financial crisis, a sharp contraction in world trade and ongoing housing market corrections in some economies.

Details from the European Commission report on the economic development of Slovenia, Bulgaria and Romania follow (spring report forecasts in brackets):

SLOVENIA:

ROMANIA:

BULGARIA: