September 2 (SeeNews) - Bulgaria's economy will start recovering no earlier than 2011 when the government expects a real economic growth of 3.8% after a 2.0% contraction in 2010, the Finance Ministry said.
"The Bulgarian economy is expected to contract by 2.0% in 2010. The economic recovery processes will become noticeable from 2011 onwards, with exports to be the driver behind the growth," the minsitry said in its 2010-2013 fiscal plan posted on the ministry's website. The cabinet appoved the fiscal framework for its entire four-year term of office, on which Bulgaria’s 2010 budget will be based, last week.
In 2009, Bulgaria's economy will shrink by 6.3% due to a 4.2% contraction of domestic consumption and a 12.3% decrease in exports. Imports this year will also fall on a decrease of domestic consumption by a real 19.5%, the ministry said. Bulgaria's economy grew by a real 6.0% last year.
Unemployment rate in the country is seen worsening, reaching 9.5% at the end of 2009 and rising further to 11.4% next year. It will start improving in 2011-2013 thanks to the expected growth of the economy. Bulgaria had a jobless rate of 6.27% at the end of last year.
Following are details from the 2010-2013 fiscal programme:
|
2008 |
2009e |
2010f |
2011f |
2012f |
2013f |
GDP (in mln levs) |
66,728 |
63,710 |
63,518 |
68,106 |
73,011 |
78,202 |
GDP (in real terms) |
6.0% |
-6.3% |
-2.0% |
3.8% |
4.8% |
5.0% |
HCPI (in %, end-period) |
7.2% |
1.8% |
2.2% |
4.1% |
3.0% |
2.7% |
HCPI (in %, avg) |
11.9% |
2.3% |
2.2% |
3.5% |
3.2% |
2.7% |
Current Account (as %/GDP) |
-25.3% |
-11.0% |
-8.0% |
-7.6% |
-7.2% |
-7.2% |
FDI (in mln euro) |
6,163.0 |
3,000.0 |
3,300.0 |
3,333.0 |
3,399.7 |
3,467.7 |
FDI (%/GDP) |
18.1% |
9.2% |
10.2% |
9.6% |
9.1% |
8.7% |
The fiscal plan tracks the forecasts for a recovery of European Union's economy, which is expected to grow by a real 2.0% in 2011, after a 0.1% contraction in 2010 and a 4.0% drop in 2009.
(1 euro = 1.95583 Bulgarian levs)