May 11 (SeeNews) - The European Commission said on Thursday it affirmed its forecast for Bulgaria’s economic expansion in 2017 at 2.9%, with domestic demand remaining the main growth driver.
In 2018, the growth of Bulgaria's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to slow down slightly to 2.8%, the Commission said in its Spring 2017 Economic Forecast published on its website.
The Commission increased its estimate of Bulgaria’s GDP growth in 2016 to 3.4%, from 3.3% projected in the winter edition of the economic forecast.
Inflation is expected to turn positive in 2017 and reach 1.3%, due to strong domestic demand, higher administrative prices for utilities and recovering energy prices, the EU executive body said.
The general government deficit is forecast at 0.4% of GDP in 2017, the Commission said. A positive contribution to the revenue side is expected from the increase in social security contributions, while increases in the public wage bill and public investment are expected to bring expenditure up.
The pace of private consumption growth is expected to rise from 2.1% in 2016 to 2.7% in both 2017 and 2018.
Employment growth is projected to edge up from 0.5% in 2016 to 0.6% in 2017 and then stay at 0.6% in 2018, supported mainly by the recovery in domestic demand, the Commission said.
Details of the Commission's projections for Bulgaria follow:
|
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
Real GDP |
3.4 |
2.9 |
2.8 |
Inflation |
-1.3 |
1.3 |
1.5 |
Private consumption |
2.1 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
Public consumption |
0.6 |
2.0 |
2.2 |
Exports (goods and services) |
5.7 |
4.6 |
4.8 |
Imports (goods and services) |
2.8 |
4.7 |
4.9 |
Unemployment rate |
7.6 |
7.0 |
6.4 |
Current account balance |
4.2 |
2.4 |
1.8 |
Budget balance |
0.0 |
-0.4 |
-0.3 |
source: European Commission