August 22 (SeeNews) - Austrian banking group Raiffeisen said on Friday it expects Bulgaria's 2008 gross domestic product (GDP) to rise by a real 6.0%, up from the previously projected growth of 5.5%.
“GDP growth will have remained above 6% in Q2 before it slows down more notably in H2,” Raiffeisen said in its monthly economic report on Bulgaria for August.
Earlier this month, Bulgaria’s National Statistic Institute (NSI) estimated that the country’s GDP grew by a real 6.3% in the second quarter, slower than the 7.3% rise recorded a year earlier. The statistics office is expected to release the second-quarter GDP figures next month.
“The yet-to-be released Q2 figure may turn out even bigger than 6.3%, as the first estimate of NSI for Q1 of 6.8% was 0.2 pp lower than the later official release,” Raiffeisen said.
Also earlier this month, Bulgaria’s Economy Minister Petar Dimitrov said the 2008 GDP is seen rising by a real 6.2-6.5%, higher than the real GDP growth of 6.2% forecast by the government earlier.
The country’s economy grew by a real 6.2% in 2007, slower than the 6.3% growth rate recorded a year earlier.
Raiffeisen has not revised its other macroeconomic projections for Bulgaria that it reported in July.
Following are Raiffeisen key macroeconomic figures for Bulgaria:
|
2007 |
2008(estimate) |
2009(forecast) |
Consumer prices (avg annual) |
8.4 |
13.0 |
7.8 |
Consumer prices (end-year) |
12.5 |
10.6 |
5.0 |
Real GDP growth (pct change) |
6.2 |
6.0 |
5.8 |
Nominal GDP (bln euro) |
28.9 |
34.0 |
38.6 |
Industrial output (pct change) |
8.7 |
8.0 |
8.0 |
Unemployment rate (avg annual) |
6.9 |
6.0 |
5.5 |
Producer prices (avg annual, pct change) |
8.4 |
11.5 |
7.0 |
C/A balance (pct of GDP) |
-21.5 |
-20.5 |
-18.5 |
Budget balance (pct of GDP) |
3.7 |
3.5 |
2.5 |