January 15 (SeeNews) - Economic growth in Southeast Europe is expected to be modest in the 2014- 2016 period, data from a World Bank report showed.
"The pick-up in activity will be most marked in the Central and Eastern European economies, where there is currently the most spare capacity. Despite stronger growth, domestic demand, is expected to remain sluggish due to ongoing banking-sector restructuring and tighter international financial conditions, which will weigh on investment and consumer demand," the World Bank said in its Global Economic Prospects January 2014 report.
Ongoing or planned fiscal consolidation in some countries such as Albania, Macedonia and Serbia will also serve to partly offset the growth impetus from stronger exports.
"Growth in Turkey is expected to stabilize around its potential growth rate of about 3.9 percent over the 2014–16 period—well below its pre-crisis rate of 6.8 percent (2002–2007 average). As a significant beneficiary of international capital flows in recent years, Turkey will be most affected by the tighter global financial markets," the report added.
Following are the World Bank’s projections for the annual percentage growth in GDP and current account to GDP ratio in eight SEE countries:
|
2013e |
2014f |
2015f |
2016f |
Albania-GDP |
1.3 |
2.1 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
- C/A balance/GDP |
-8.2 |
-7.1 |
-6.3 |
-6.7 |
Bosnia-GDP |
0.8 |
2.0 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
- C/A balance/GDP |
-7.5 |
-6.6 |
-6.3 |
-6.1 |
Bulgaria-GDP |
0.6 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
- C/A balance/GDP |
2.1 |
-0.5 |
-0.9 |
-1.0 |
Macedonia-GDP |
2.5 |
3.0 |
3.5 |
3.7 |
C/A balance/GDP |
-3.2 |
-4.5 |
-5.7 |
-6.1 |
Moldova-GDP |
5.5 |
3.8 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
-C/A balance/GDP |
-6.1 |
-8.7 |
-9.6 |
-8.0 |
Romania-GDP |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
-C/A balance/GDP |
-1.5 |
-1.8 |
-2.5 |
-2.7 |
Serbia-GDP |
2.0 |
1.0 |
2.2 |
2.5 |
C/A balance/GDP |
-6.0 |
-6.0 |
6.3 |
6.5 |
Turkey-GDP |
4.3 |
3.5 |
3.9 |
4.2 |
-C/A balance/GDP |
-7.4 |
-7.1 |
-6.8 |
-6.5 |
Kosovo-GDP |
3.0 |
4.0 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
-C/A balance/GDP |
-10.7 |
-8.7 |
-8.3 |
-8.6 |