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Sep 20, 2007 16:28 EEST
SKOPJE (Macedonia), September 20 (SeeNews) – Deutsche Bank said on Thursday it estimated the South-East Europe regional banking market will grow by 17% by 2011, with Romania and Croatia seeing the highest growth rates.
According to the analysis posted on Deutsche Bank’s website, covering Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia, Romania and Serbia, retail lending and investments are racing ahead, driven by falling real interest rates coupled with increasing household wealth.
“Romania’s banking sector will outperform with expected growth of 27%, nearly surpassing the Hungarian banking sector by size in 2011,” the Frankfurt-based worldwide banker forecast.
The highest growth in the SEE sector in terms of size is expected to come from Romania and Croatia, which are projected to grow to 175.4 billion euro ($246.2 billion) in 2011 from 51.9 billion ($72.9 billion) in 2006 for Romania and to 57 billion euro from 40.7 billion for the same period for Croatia.
“The investment fund industry is receiving a strong growth impetus, while the degree of financial intermediation is still below balance. Still, the high pace of credit growth in some countries raises concerns about possible threats to macroeconomic and financial stability. However, banks’ strong foreign ownership, sufficient capitalisation, still low levels of non-performing loans and prudential and regulatory tightening measures by the central banks mitigate these risks,” the analysis said.
Following the path of Central European Countries (CEE), the retail sector is expected to be the main engine of growth, with mortgage loans and investment funds becoming the most dynamic fields of business, Deutsche Bank said.
Banking sector assets in SEE are mostly owned by foreign banks and only 7% of their assets remain in state hands. Among the foreign players, Austrian and Italian banks dominate, represented by UniCredit and Erste bank.
Deutsche Bank is a leading global investment bank with over 75,000 employees in 75 countries. The bank is continuously growing in North America, Asia, and key emerging markets.
Deutsche Bank is a leader in the banking market in Germany and comprises three Group Divisions: Corporate and Investment Bank, Private Clients and Asset Management and Corporate Investments.
At the moment around 200 commercial banks operate regionally, according to the latest data availabale.
($ = 0.7124 euro)
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