October 25 (SeeNews) - CFA Romania, an association of investment professionals, said on Tuesday it expects the country's gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 4% in 2022, and the budget gap to be equivalent to 6.1% of GDP.
"Amid expectations of a strong slowdown of the global economy, the macroeconomic confidence indicator registered a significant decrease, in line with global confidence indicators, which reached historically low levels. Inflationary expectations continued to decrease, indicating the possibility that the inflation rate will decrease below 10% starting October 2023," CFA Romania's vice-president Adrian Codirlasu said in a press release.
In its previous survey published in September, CFA analysts forecast a GDP rise of 4.1% in 2022 and a 5.9% budget deficit. CFA analysts' latest expectations are more optimistic than those of government, which targets 3.5% economic growth this year.
In August, finance minister Adrian Caciu said Romania will meet its deficit target of 5.84% of the projected GDP in 2022, despite warnings from the Fiscal Council of overestimated revenues.
The CFA macroeconomic confidence index for September dropped to 34.7 points, from 45.6 points in August, the association said.
The analysts said they expect an average inflation of 9.59% for the next 12 months. Romania's consumer prices rose by 15.88% year-on-year in September, compared to an increase of 15.32% in August, according to the latest data available from the national statistical office.
CFA analysts expect an exchange rate of 5.0117 lei per euro in the next six months and 5.0797 lei per euro in the next 12 months.
The CFA Society Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index, first released by CFA Society Romania in May 2011, is an indicator that aims at quantifying financial analysts' expectations regarding economic activity in Romania for a year. The index takes values between 0 (no confidence) and 100 (complete confidence in the Romanian economy) and is compiled based on six questions regarding current conditions of business and labour market; expectations about business, labour market, personal income and personal wealth.
(1 euro=4.9038 lei)