BELGRADE (Serbia), February 2 (SeeNews) – Anti-European and pro-Russian parties have a strong chance to enter Serbia's parliament if early elections are held in the spring, after coming nowhere near clearing the 5% threshold in the past elections in 2014, political analyst and social scientist Vesna Pesic told SeeNews.
The Serbian Radical Party, for one, which is led by nationalist Vojislav Seselj who recently returned from The Hague where he was tried for war crimes in former Yugoslavia, has every chance now to make it into parliament, Pesic said in a recent emailed interview.
This is the second time in a row that Serbia faces early parliamentary election with a government supported by two-thirds of the chamber, a comfortable enough margin for decision making.
Earlier this month prime minister Aleksandar Vucic said he decided to call early elections in a bid to strengthen the government's authority in the face of reforms leading Serbia to the EU. These reforms - which are part of Serbia's three-year agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded about a year ago - include measures for fiscal consolidation and macroeconomic stabilisation, as well as restructuring the public sector.
"The reform of the public sector hasn't even started yet, although it is the biggest burden on the state budget as it covers up the huge corruption of the ruling coalitions. There is the problem of securing export and economic growth and boosting the employment rate but these are not the questions that IMF is interested in. What is important to the IMF is that Serbia cut administrative expenses so as to be able to repay its debt to the western banks,” Pesic said, adding that the country's foreign debt exceeds 70% of its GDP.
“It was relatively easy to cut the wages and the pensions but when it comes to tackling the issues supporting the uncontrolled power of the ruling elite, it is difficult to foresee if the agreement with the IMF will be viable,” Pesic also said.
Currently, the ruling Serbian Progressive Party, SNS, controls 135 of the 250 seats in Serbia's parliament. Twenty-five seats are taken by the left-wing Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) of late dictator Slobodan Milosevic. The Democratic Party has 14 MPs. Eleven seats are controlled by a faction of the Democratic Party led by ex-president Boris Tadic and as many by the United Pensioners Party, the Social-Democratic Party has ten seats, independents and other smaller parties occupy the remaining seats.
According to Pesic, by calling early election Vucic willl seek to consolidate his power on the local government level ahead of regular local elections due to be held later this year. “The prime minister is not so popular on that level and he seeks to win the majority of the votes through a centralised, republican campaign.”
The political analyst voiced doubts that the upcoming election will be fair and democratic at all, even more so given the Serbian media's loyalty to the power holders.
“In the past, local government polls were garnished with physical attacks on opposition representatives encouraged by the ruling government, as well as with threats to citizens and organised shopping for votes,” Pesic recalled.
KOSOVO
Nevertheless, the prime minister is backed by the EU and the West. Part of that support can be attributed to Serbia's effort to synchronise its approach to the refugee crisis with Germany, which, the social scientist noted, "is way better than building walls and fences". However, the main reason for it is that Vucic is expected to back off on Kosovo independence enough to let it become a member of the UN, according to Pesic.
The newest Balkan country is a former Serbian province of great historical significance to Serbians. Kosovo is a self-proclaimed independent state since February 2008, recognised so far by 108 of the 193 members of the UN. Strongly supported by Russia, Serbia does not recognise Kosovo, predominantly populated by ethnic Albanians, as a sovereign state.
Serbia's close relations with Russia have prompted European officials to stress that considering it is a candidate for EU membership and has opened the first accession talks chapters, Serbia should also support a common foreign policy. On Monday the Head of the EU Delegation in Belgrade, Michael Davenport, told local daily Danas, that he hopes "Russia won't undermine Serbia's EU path".
Close ties with Russia fuel Serbian nationalists' hopes to preserve Kosovo and get Republika Srpska, now part of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Pesic noted. “Serbia seeks support for its national and state interests from Russia because it is clear that it wouldn't get it from the West when it comes to disintegrating Bosnia and Herzegovina and keeping Kosovo in Serbia," she added.
This makes Serbia's integration into the EU is very much debatable although it seems the country is firmly on this track, according to Pesic. "Without a correction of the Serbian national question [the Kosovo issue] EU membership is unlikely."