February 19 (SeeNews) - Serbia's central bank, the NBS, said it expects the country's gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by between 5% and 6% in 2021 and reach its pre-crisis levels in the second quarter, it said.
"Owing to the measures adopted by the NBS and the Government, production capacities and jobs were preserved, and investment continued despite the pandemic. This ensured the recovery of the key sectors of the economy even during the third quarter of 2020 and provided the basis for stable economic growth in 2021 and the years to come," the NBS said on Thursday in its inflation report for February.
A sound pace of vaccination in Serbia and abroad could bring the annual growth rate close to 6%, the NBS said. "We expect growth to be led by domestic demand and exports, for which euro area economic growth is necessary as well."
Overall, the risks to the 2021 projection are symmetric and mostly associated with the course of the pandemic and the efficiency in winding it down. The risks relating to international factors are skewed to the downside, due to the renewed spread of the coronavirus since October and the appearance of new strains, as well as tighter containment measures in many European countries, particularly in the euro area, the central bank said.
Serbia's economic output fell by a real 1.3% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2020, the country's statistical office said in a flash estimate earlier this month. Serbia’s real GDP declined 1.4% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2020 after shrinking by 6.4% in the second quarter. The statistical office said it will release more details on the fourth-quarter GDP on March 1.