BUCHAREST (Romania), October 14 (SeeNews) – The economies of Romania and Serbia will grow next year, while Croatia's economy will stagnate, as the three countries are lagging behind in reaching the bottom of the crisis by a quarter or two, Austrian banking group Erste said on Wednesday.
"Next year's growth will be influenced mainly by the low base of exports and diminishing negative effect of destocking in inventories," Erste said in its "Growth after crisis" report. "Recovery starting later than in the first quarter would not be adequately captured in the full-year growth next year."
Erste forecast that the economies of Romania and Serbia will grow by 0.2% and 1.0% next year, respectively, while Croatia's economy will stagnate.
"Romania, Hungary, Croatia and Serbia are lagging in bottoming out by about 1-2 quarters. Consumer confidence and retail sales are still depressed in these countries and preconditions for their upturn are stabilisation of the job markets and stable currencies," Erste said.
Erste also forecast a 8.0% contraction of Romania's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year. Croatia's and Serbia's GDP are seen shrinking by 5.5% ad 5.1% in 2009, respectively.