April 24 (SeeNews) - As Western Balkan countries prepare to join the European Union, it appears that power is being consolidated in the hands of individuals, rather than across institutions and within systems of checks and balances, political analysts tell SeeNews.
Following his election last week, Montenegrin president-elect Milo Djukanovic is set to begin his eighth term as either prime minister or head of state. Djukanovic rose to power in Montenegro in 1991 and has since only had briefs stints out of office.
Elsewhere in the Western Balkans, Milorad Dodik has been in power in Bosnia’s Serb Republic since 1998. In 2010, Dodik switched roles from prime minister to president of the Serb Republic. Current Kosovo president Hashim Thaci previously served multiple terms as prime minister, both before and after Kosovo’s independence declaration, as is the case with Djukanovic, who has stayed the course during Montenegro’s transition from a Yugoslav republic to an independent state. In Macedonia, former conservative prime minister Nikola Gruevski recently held power for nearly 10 consecutive years.
Though only in power since 2014, Serbian president Aleksandar Vucic already appears to have established a stranglehold over the country’s politics. In similar fashion to some of his counterparts in the region, Vucic switched roles in 2017, moving from prime minister to president.
Political analysts told SeeNews earlier this month that there are a variety of reasons for power concentrating in the hands of the few in the region. Some of the reasons include a predisposition among citizens to wanting a strong head of state; state capture; and the backing of foreign powers, said Tanja Porcnik, president of the Visio Institute think-tank in Slovenia and co-author of the U.S.-based Cato Institute’s Human Freedom Index.
Porcnik noted that some people in the region remain nostalgic for the former Yugoslavia, where there was a leader for life - Josip Broz Tito.
“People are used to having one leader the head of the country for more than four or eight years,” Porcnik said.
Once they get in power, political elites in the Western Balkans use state resources to consolidate their power, the political and economic analyst said.
“These people have captured the state,” Porcnik said. “The political elite has captured the economic means of production. In a lot of these countries state ownership is humungous.”
In the case of Montenegro, Djukanovic has been accused of not just capturing the state, but looting it, and at times, using revenue from cigarette smuggling to fill its coffers.
Critics allege Djukanovic transferred prior state-controlled wealth directly to himself and his family. One example frequently cited is the privatization deal that awarded Djukanovic’s family a large ownership stake in a Montenegrin bank, now called Prva Banka Crne Gore. Later, when the global financial crisis hit, Prva Banka received a state bailout.
Djukanovic, who was also implicated by Italian prosecutors in a massive cigarette smuggling operation, received the 2015 distinction of “Person of the Year in Organised Crime,” an award issued by the Organised Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP), a cross-border network of non-profit investigative centres, journalists and regional news organisations.
“While he casts himself as a progressive, pro-Western leader who recently helped his country join NATO and put it on track to join the European Union, he has built one of the most dedicated kleptocracies and organised crime havens in the world,” the OCCRP stated in its report.
Vesna Pesic, a political analyst and former member of Serbian parliament, describes Djukanovic as a masterful politician. However, Pesic likewise says the Montenegrin leader is overseeing a “criminalised country.”
“It is complete corruption,” Pesic said.
Pesic, like Porcnik, said certain Balkan leaders get away with state capture and consolidation of power in part because of the backing they receive from the West. Djukanovic is the prime example, having morphed from an ally of Serbian strongman Slobodan Milosevic to a leader pushing for the Euro-Atlantic integration of Montenegro.
“Djukanovic delivered what was expected of him,” Pesic said. “He introduced the euro, he decided to join NATO and now he is even against Russia, which is most important for America and the EU.”
In neighboring Serbia, Vucic, too, enjoys support from the West, even though he is also accused of having autocratic tendencies.
Pesic says Vucic is slowly eroding Serbia’s democratic institutions, exercising control over Serbian media and using state resources to create a one-party system. Unlike Djukanovic, Vucic has maintained close ties with Russia.
However, the West still cooperates with Vucic and offers mere tempered criticism of his alleged autocratic ways.
“They think he will not go into any violent conflict,” Pesic said.
In addition to offering stability, Vucic has pleased the West by partaking in the process of normalising Serbia’s relations with Kosovo, the Serbian political analyst said.
Each country in the Western Balkans has a different case of consolidation of power, and they are all completely different, Pesic said.
Whereas in Montenegro Djukanovic placed sanctions on Russia, in Macedonia, Gruevski avoided sanctioning Russia and fell out of favour with the West.
In Bosnia’s Serb Republic, Dodik has long fallen out of favour with the West. However, as he has pushed nationalism in the Serb-dominated region, Dodik has received backing from Russian president Vladimir Putin.
Kosovo’s Thaci is a former Kosovo Liberation Army leader who has faced allegations of involvement in organ trafficking. Thaci, though, plays the counter role to Vucic, representing Pristina in the Serbia-Kosovo talks. He has remained in good standing with the West, even as his name has surfaced amid speculation on potential war crimes indictments.
Though Pesic views every Western Balkan country as a separate case, she draws a parallel when describing Serbia and its neighbours, particularly those countries with leaders rotating between president and prime minister.
“Power goes with the person, not institutions,” Pesic said.