July 5 (SeeNews) - Romania's retail sales rose by an annual 15.2% in May after going up by an annual 19% the month before, data from the country’s statistics office showed on Tuesday.
The figures are seasonally and working-day adjusted, INS said in a statement.
On a monthly basis, retail trade turnover fell 1.6% in May after posting a 2.8% increase in April, the data indicated.
In the first five months of the year retail sales climbed by an annual 16.8%.
The figures do not include trade in motor vehicles and motorcycles.
In 2015 Romania's retail sales rose by 8.9%.
Details follow (pct change):
|
May y/y |
April y/y |
May m/m |
April m/m |
Retail sales |
+15.2 |
+19.0 |
-1.6 |
+2.8 |
- Food sales |
+24.3 |
+27.0 |
-0.5 |
+1.6 |
- Non-food sales |
+12.4 |
+17.8 |
-3.2 |
+3.5 |
- Fuels |
+8.9 |
+8.8 |
-2.2 |
-0.2 |
* based on seasonally-adjusted data.
Commenting on the figures, Raiffeisen Bank analysts said they were not expecting the drop but stressed that retail sales are still at an elevated level, and private consumption should remain the main driver of GDP advance.
For their part, Banca Transilvania analysts said that retail sales were returning to normal as the impact of a VAT cut from 24% to 9% starting June 2015 was wearing off, consumption was becoming more cautious and international oil prices continue to fluctuate. For the coming quarters, the bank analysts said they expect this trend to continue.
However, Banca Transilvania analysts forecast a good pace growth of retail sales, supported by an improvement in real disposable income, an increase in the domestic supply of agricultural goods, better revenues from taxes, good lending dynamics, accelerating tourism and migration of human capital.
In its macroeconometric scenario, Banca Transilvania sees private consumption rising by an annual 7% in 2016, by 5.1% in 2017 and by 4.5% in 2018.
On the other hand, ING Bank analysts said that Easter seasonality weighted on retail sales. "Orthodox Easter, which tends to have a strong influence on household spending patterns, was celebrated this year at the start of May. This might explain both the very strong April result and the soft May print," the analysts said in a daily snapshot.
The second quarter still looks quite solid in terms of private consumption, the analysts added, but there will be a slowdown relative to the excellent first quarter results , which were also boosted by a 4 percentage points headline VAT cut, the ING analysts concluded.