CFA Romania analysts forecast slight improvement in economic activity

The index of analysts' expectations regarding the economic situation in Romania in the next 12 months was 28.9 points in March, up 1 point compared to February, CFA said in a monthly survey published on Tuesday. However, compared with March 2018, the index stood 10.5 points lower.

The macroeconomic confidence indicator rose by 0.5 points month-on-month to 34.9 points in March, influenced by a mixed perception of the current economic situation - an indicator which edged down by 0.4 points on the month to 47.1 points in March.

The macroeconomic confidence indicator was 12.7 points lower in March compared to to the same month of last year, while the current conditions index was 17.1 points lower year-on-year.

The CFA analysts said they expect, on average, inflation of 4.02% in the year ending in April 2020.

Romania's annual consumer price inflation accelerated to 4% in March, from 3.8% in the previous month, data from the national statistical office showed.

The CFA analysts expect an exchange rate of 4.7946 lei ($1.13/ 1 euro) per euro in the next six months and 4.8541 lei per euro in all of 2019.

The CFA Society Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index, first released by CFA Society Romania in May 2011, is an indicator that aims at quantifying financial analysts' expectations regarding economic activity in Romania for a time horizon of one year.

The index takes values between 0 (no confidence) and 100 ​(complete confidence in the Romanian economy) and is calculated based on six questions regarding current conditions of business and labour market; expectations about business, labour market, personal income and personal wealth.

(1 euro = 4.7581 lei)