September 25 (SeeNews) - CFA Romania, an association of investment professionals, said on Friday that they expect the country's gross domestic product (GDP) to shrink by 4.7% in 2020, and the budget gap to be equivalent to 8.3% of GDP.
Some 70% of analysts polled by CFA in August said that the economic impact of the coronavirus crisis will be felt until the second quarter of 2021, CFA said in a monthly survey.
Therefore, analysts expect economic output to contract, budget deficit to increase and jobless rate to exceed 7%.
In CFA's previous projection made in July, analysts said that they expect a GDP contraction of 4-5% in 2020, and a budget gap of 8%.
Yet, the survey revealed that CFA analysts expect economic activity in Romania to pick up slightly in the next 12 months.
The index of analysts' expectations regarding the economic situation in Romania in the next 12 months measured 38.7 points in August, up 3.2 points compared to July. Compared with the August 2019 value, the index was 5.4 points lower.
The macroeconomic confidence index rose by 3.7 points month-on-month to 36 points in August, while the perception of the current economic situation improved by 4.8 points month-on-month to 33.3 points.
The macroeconomic confidence indicator was 9.4 points lower in August compared to the value in the same month of last year, while the current conditions index was 39.2 points lower.
The CFA analysts said they expect, on average, inflation of 2.94% for the year ending in August 2021.
Romania's consumer prices rose by 2.7% year-on-year in August, compared to an annual increase of 2.8% in July, the national statistical office said earlier.
The CFA analysts expect an exchange rate of 4.8886 lei ($1.14/ 1.01 euro) per euro in the next six months and 4.9777 lei per euro in the next 12 months.
The CFA Society Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index, first released by CFA Society Romania in May 2011, is an indicator that aims at quantifying financial analysts' expectations regarding economic activity in Romania for a time horizon of one year.
The index takes values between 0 (no confidence) and 100 (complete confidence in the Romanian economy) and is compiled based on six questions regarding current conditions of business and labour market; expectations about business, labour market, personal income and personal wealth.
(1 euro =4.8750 lei)