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UniCredit affirms N. Macedonia's 2024 GDP growth f'cast at 2.1%

Jul 10, 2024, 1:42:17 PMArticle by Dragana Petrushevska
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July 10 (SeeNews) - Italian financial group UniCredit said it anticipates an acceleration in North Macedonia's economic growth to 2.1% this year, up from an estimated 1% expansion in 2023, keeping its March forecast unchanged.

UniCredit affirms N. Macedonia's 2024 GDP growth f'cast at 2.1%
Photo: Julian Nyča, via Wikimedia Commons

Economic growth in 2024 is expected to be driven by a recovery in private consumption and investment and the absence of the large drag from inventories experienced in 2023, UniCredit said in its CEE Quarterly report published at the end of last month.

In 2025, North Macedonia's economic growth should accelerate to 3%, UniCredit said.

Average consumer price inflation is estimated to hover at around 3.5-4.0% in 2024 before slowing to 3.0% in 2025.

"The main risk to inflation is stickier then expected core inflation and the uncertainty about the increase in regulated electricity prices," the bank said.

The fiscal deficit is expected to narrow from 4.9% of GDP in 2023 to 3.4% of GDP in 2024, in line with the IMF’s Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) target, thanks to fiscal consolidation measures, while government debt will likely increase to 54% of GDP.

In terms of politics, the primary focus will be on whether the new government coalition can implement the necessary constitutional changes to restart EU accession negotiations, UniCredit said.

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