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EC lowers forecasts for Greece's GDP growth in 2018, 2019

EC lowers forecasts for Greece's GDP growth in 2018, 2019 EU Commission headquarters in Brussels; Author: Radomir Ralev

TIRANA (Albania), May 3 (SeeNews) – The European Commission said on Thursday that it has cut its forecast for Greece’s economic growth in 2018 to 1.9%, from 2.5% projected in February.

"Greece’s economy grew by 1.4% last year, marking the first time that real GDP growth has exceeded 1% since 2007," the European Commission said in its Spring 2018 Economic Forecast publication. "The economic recovery is expected to accelerate assuming a successful completion of the stability support programme."

The Commission also lowered its forecast for Greece's economic growth in 2019 to 2.3%, from 2.5% projected in February.

The revised projections for 2018 and 2019 reflect the considerably lower carryover effect for 2018 resulting from the lower-than-expected growth in the last quarter of 2017, the Commission explained.

“Furthermore, the lacklustre performance of private consumption suggests that households may be more financially stretched than previously assumed and that the considerable improvements in employment are taking longer to translate into consumption growth.”

However, the economic recovery is expected to accelerate assuming a successful completion of the stability support programme, the Commission said, adding that unemployment is expected to fall below 20% by 2019, for the first time since 2011.

“Having reached a fiscal surplus in 2017, for a second year in a row, Greece is on track to achieving the 3.5% of GDP primary surplus target in both 2018 and 2019.”

Details on Greece from the European Commission's Spring 2018 Economic Forecast follow (pct change):

  2017 2018 2019
GDP growth 1.4 1.9 2.3
Private consumption 0.1 0.5 0.9
Public consumption -1.1 1.2 0.4
Gross fixed capital formation 9.6 10.3 12.1
Exports 6.8 5.7 4.6
Imports 7.2 5.5 4.4
Unemployment 21.5 20.1 18.4
Harmonized consumer prices 1.1 0.5 1.2
General govt gross debt as % of GDP 178.6 177.8 170.3

 

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