UPDATE 2 - Romania's Oct Inflation Slows to 0.97% M/M, Speeds to 6.84% Y/Y, Meets Expectations

November 12 (SeeNews) - Romania's monthly consumer price inflation slowed to 0.97% in October from 1.08% in September, in line with analyst expectations, data from the country's statistics institute INS showed on Monday.

On an annual basis, inflation quickened to 6.84% in October from 6.03% a month earlier, INS data showed.

”We consider that headline inflation has reached its highest level in October, as it is likely that the trajectory of inflation will revert downwards in the next two months, ending the year at around 5.7% y/y, on the back of favourable base effect [comparison base for the same period last year] and a slow down in the monthly growth dynamics of food goods’ prices, " Romania's Banca Comerciala Romana analyst, Melania Hancila, said in a statement.

“However, this scenario depends mainly on the development of the domestic currency, which we estimated would recover to the 3.30 zone towards the end of the year. Otherwise headline inflation might stand around 6.0% in December, especially if the price of oil continues to increase on international markets,“ Hancila said.

The Romanian leu reached on Monday an almost one-year low of 3.4513 against the euro, dealers said.

”We expect inflation y/y to slow to 6% in December, because of the base effect […] after that it will move back to 6.50% in January, February and March,” Ionut Dumitru, an analyst with Raiffeisen Bank told SeeNews.

Food prices grew by 1.3% month-on-month in October, mainly due to a 7.96% rise in egg prices, 9.61% growth of the price of edible oil, and a 1.76% price increase in fresh and canned vegetables. Prices of milk and dairy products rose by 1.29% last month, as well.

Non-food items appreciated by 0.69% month-on-month in October, as electricity, gas and central heating prices advanced 1.41%. Tobacco and cigarette prices went up by 0.89% and fuel prices rose by 0.74%.

The prices of services went up by 0.98% last month, mainly as a result of more expensive rental services, which advanced by 1.23% on the month. Water and sewage services were 1.6% more expensive than a month earlier.

Average monthly consumer price inflation in the first 10 months of 2007 was 0.5%, compared to 0.3% in the same period of 2006, the INS said. The EU harmonised consumer price index was 4.6% higher on the year in the past 12 months. Romania joined the Union in January.

Last week Romania's central bank, BNR, raised its annual inflation forecast for 2007 by 1.8 percentage points to 5.7%, above the upper end of its target band of 3.0%-5.0%. It also raised its end-2008 inflation projection to 4.3% from an earlier 3.7%.

BNR has revised its 2007 and 2008 inflation forecasts due to more severe than expected effects of this summer’s drought, a significant rise of the international prices of cereals and the fall in the Romanian currency.

BNR's 2008 and 2009 inflation targets are 3.8% and 3.5%, respectively, both within a target band of one percentage point on either side.

Romania's annual consumer price inflation slowed to 4.9% in 2006 from 8.6% in 2005, fitting comfortably within the central bank's 2006 target range of 4.0% to 6.0%.

Romania's October consumer prices (pct change):