August 31 (SeeNews) - Slovenia's economic output decreased by a real 13% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2020 due to the coronavirus crisis, slightly overshooting the expectations of Erste Bank analysts for a 12% contraction, the bank said on Monday.
"As anticipated, GDP plunged into double-digit area in 2Q20, reflecting full impact of the lock-down measures which were introduced in April and lasted up to mid-May," Ertse said in an instant comment following the release of GDP data by the Slovenian statistical office earlier on Monday.
On a quarterly comparison basis, Slovenia's gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 9.6% in April-June.
"Detailed structure revealed strong negative impact from domestic demand, with both private consumption and investments activity showing double-digit decline," Erste noted.
Domestic consumption shrank by an annual 12% in April-June, as a result of an 11.8% drop in final consumption and a 12.8% fall in gross capital formation. The only constituent of final consumption that increased was government expenditure which rose by 1.5% on the year, the official figures showed.
A large drop in external demand in April-June resulted from a 24.5% fall in exports and a 25% decrease in imports. Thus, the trade balance had a negative contribution of 2.1 percentage points to the second-quarter GDP dynamics.
"With 2Q20 delivering strongest hit, going forward we expect economic activity to start gradually picking-up throughout second half of the year. Nevertheless, the pace of recovery would remain largely subject to the pandemic developments, as potential restrictions amid rise of newly infected could slow down economic revival," Erste concluded.
It added it has put its current full-year forecast for a 7.7% drop under a slight upward revision but did not provide a revised figure.
In January-March, Slovenia's gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by a real 2.5% on the year and was down by 4.8% compared to the previous quarter.
GDP fell 7.9% on the year in the first six months, the statistical office said.
The Slovenian economy is expected to shrink by some 7-8% this year, impacted by the coronavirus pandemic, according to forecasts by the government, the European Commission and international financial institutions.