UPDATE 1 - Romania's retail sales growth slows to 10% y/y in Oct

BUCHAREST (Romania), December 5 (SeeNews) - Romania's retail sales rose by 10% year-on-year in October, after posting 11.1% growth the month before, seasonally and working-day adjusted data from the country’s statistics office showed on Monday.

On a monthly basis, retail trade turnover was up 0.5% in October, after growing by 0.1% in September, the data indicated.

In the first ten months of the year of the year, retail sales climbed by an annual 14.7%. In 2015, Romania's retail sales rose by 8.9%.

Commenting on the year-on-year slowdown in retail sales, ING Bank commented that it was due to base effects.

"A sharp drop in fuel sales was behind the somewhat subdued headline in October, but this could prove temporary as consumers might have decided to wait it out a bit after fuel prices increased sharply during that month. Then again, following a big pull-back in non-food sales in September, things went the other way in October, more than compensating for the weakness on the fuel side, mostly thanks to household items and clothing," ING Bank analysts said in a snap analysis.

Also, they added, with disposable income growth still elevated and job creation holding steady close to its highest level in two and a half decades, private consumption is likely to remain the major driving force behind what they still believe to be robust gross domestic product (GDP) growth numbers.

"As such, despite a lukewarm start to the fourth quarter data, as the headline retail print would suggest, the good Black Friday shopping campaign last month - at least based on figures quoted by domestic media - adds to our belief that economic growth might have accelerated a bit into the year end," ING analysts said.

For their part, Raiffeisen Bank analysts said that the positive month on month dynamics in October was driven by the advance recorded by sales of non-food products, while being hampered by the drop in fuel sales.

"The positive dynamics of retail sales recorded in early Q4 bodes well for the development of private consumption in the fourth quarter," Raiffeisen Bank analysts commented in a daily market report.

Details follow, seasonally and working-day adjusted data (pct change):

  Oct y/y Sept y/y Oct m/m Sept m/m
Retail sales 10.0% 11.1% 0.5% 0.1%
-food sales 7.2% 7.5% 0.4% 0.4%
-non-food sales 15.0% 10.4% 3.2% -1.8%
-fuels 3.2 15.7% -5.9% 1.3%

The figures do not include trade in motor vehicles and motorcycles.


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