October 26 (SeeNews) - CFA Romania, an association of investment professionals, said on Thursday that the state of the country's economy is expected to worsen in the next 12 months.
Romania's macroeconomic confidence indicator fell by 5.3 points month-on-month to 45.4 points in September, its lowest level since July 2013, CFA said in a monthly survey.
The low score is mainly the result of the negative perception of the current economic situation, an indicator which fell by 4.6 points to 63.9 points in September.
The analysts' expectations regarding the economic situation in Romania in the next 12 months dropped by 5.7 points to 36.1 points in September, the lowest level since October 2012.
CFA analysts said they are expecting, on average, inflation of 2.36% in the period February 2017- February 2018, down 0.19 percentage points compared to their expectations in the previous month.
Romania's annual inflation rate rose to 1.8% in September, up from 1.2% in August, according to data from the national statistical board, INS. In its latest inflation report issued in August, Romania's central bank increased its annual inflation forecasts for this year and next, to 1.9% and 3.2%, respectively, from 1.6% and 3.1% projected earlier.
The CFA analysts expect an exchange rate of 4.63 lei ($1.18/ 1.01 euro) per euro in the next six months and 4.6696 lei per euro in 2018, up by 123 pips and 173 pips respectively, from the previous survey.
Also, 76.7% of analysts said they expect global economic conditions to be normal, while 9.3% expect an unfavourable situation and only 14% are optimistic.
The CFA Society Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index, first released by CFA Society Romania in May 2011, represents an indicator that aims at quantifying financial analysts' expectations regarding economic activity in Romania for a time horizon of one year.
The index takes values between 0 (no confidence) and 100 (complete confidence in the Romanian economy) and is calculated based on six questions regarding current conditions of business and labour market; expectations about business, labour market, personal income and personal wealth.
(1 euro = 4.5976 lei)