September 4 (SeeNews) - Romania's economic growth might exceed 8.0% this year, compared to a 6.0% expansion in 2007, the country's Banca Comerciala Romana (BCR) said.
"In the middle of a slowing down world economy, Romania’s economic growth might exceed 8% in 2008," BCR said in its regular macroeconomic bulletin on Thursday.
Romania's economy grew by 8.8% in the first half of the year.
The current account deficit as percentage of the gross domestic product (GDP) will decrease following the above expectations economic growth, the bank said. "Higher investments in agriculture and industry and lower investments in trade and services might change the structure of the economic growth in the long run, from consumption to an export driven economic growth," it added.
After a peak in July at 9.04% year-on-year due to the increases in the administered prices, annual inflation rate will go down sharply in the last summer month, with monthly rate tending towards 0% in August, the bank's analysts project.
According to them, in an optimistic scenario, August might bring a disinflation on a month-on-month basis.
"Lower oil prices on external markets, a rich domestic supply of agricultural products and Romania's leu monthly appreciation are among the underlying factors. September might bring another important downward step of the annual inflation rate."
Following are figures from BCR's macroeconomic forecasts for 2008 and 2009:
|
2007 |
2008f |
2009f |
Real GDP (y/y growth, %) |
6.0 |
8.3 |
6.0 |
Fixed capital formation (y/y growth, %) |
28.9 |
29.5 |
16.5 |
Industrial production (y/y growth, %) |
5.4 |
6.0 |
5.9 |
C/A balance (% of GDP) |
-14.0 |
-13.6 |
-12.4 |
Foreign Direct Investments (EUR billion) |
7.1 |
7.8 |
7.4 |
CPI (y/y, year-end, %) |
6.6 |
6.2 |
4.5 |
Registered unemployment rate (%) |
4.1 |
4.0 |
3.9 |
Consolidated budget balance (% of GDP) |
-2.3 |
-2.7 |
-2.7 |
RON/EUR (average) |
3.33 |
3.6 |
3.55 |