March 17 (SeeNews) - The Romanian leu on Friday weakened the most against the euro since October 2012, prompting analysts to think the central bank, BNR, might have increased its tolerance towards downward pressure on the domestic currency.
"We still believe that fundamentals work in favour of a stronger RON and that the current risk balance - both internal and external does not justify current levels. However, we cannot ignore the possibility that the central bank might have turned more lenient towards upside EUR/RON pressures," ING Bank analysts said in a daily note.
BNR set its reference exchange rate at 4.5654 lei per euro on Friday, 0.31% weaker compared to 4.5509 lei per euro on Thursday. This is the lowest exchange rate for the Romanian currency since October 24, 2012, when it reached 4.5754 lei per euro.
On Friday morning, the leu changed hands between 4.5569 and 4.5670 against the single currency, according to real-time interbank forex trading data published by local portal Conso.ro.
In the previous years, the BNR has intervened several times to prevent the leu from weakening beyond the 4.56-per-euro level, ING Bank analysts said.
In its latest macroeconomic overview on Romania, Erste Bank said it sees the Romanian leu mostly trading in a range of 4.57-4.62 per euro in 2017.
"Our forecast assumes that the BNR will be somewhat less keen on fighting 2-3% depreciation, which runs counter to the current mantra of a stable RON, which is why we see risks to our forecast as tilted to the downside", the analysts added.
On Thursday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission chief for Romania, Reza Baqir, urged the country to reconsider its economic policy trend of recent years, particularly because its current fiscal framework is worrisome, according to a press release from the Romanian president's office.
(1 euro=4.5654 lei)