June 21 (SeeNews) - A United Kingdom departure from the European Union could boost Romania's capital inflows and will cause fluctuations of the local currency but these effects will be minor and short-lived, the CEO of online broker TeleTrade Romania told SeeNews.
In the event of a Brexit, investors will shift their focus away from Britain, to the possible benefit of Romania and other countries in central and eastern Europe, Catalin Chivu commented for SeeNews.
The Romanian leu will most likely act in step with the currencies of the other emerging markets in the region, as the central bank, BNR, will intervene if fluctuations exceed the acceptable and comfortable variation range, he added.
"As the Polish zloti, the Hungarian forint and the Czech Crown, together with the leu, are treated by foreign markets in the same CEE money basket, so they may as well have similar courses against the main currencies," Chivu commented. In case of volatility, Romania will be affected alongside the other countries in the CEE cluster, and the effects will be minor and short-lived, he added.
If Britons choose to stay in the bloc, the British pound will appreciate, as will also the euro, at least in the short term, Chivu noted. "While a slight depreciation of the leu may help exports, it may also negatively affect instalments on loans taken by the population and companies," he commented, adding that the central bank will react promptly in case of a broader variation.
TeleTrade Romania is part of the Cyprus-based online brokerage group TeleTrade, which provides access to the foreign exchange market. TeleTrade Group has 200 support offices in 30 countries, mainly focusing on CIS countries and Europe.
(1 euro = 4.5341 euro)