September 9 (SeeNews) - As Croatian citizens prepare to go to the polls on Sunday, the latest opinion survey commissioned by local broadcaster RTL shows that the elections are likely to deliver a similar result to the vote in November when no party came out with a majority.
According to the survey results published on Wednesday, the Social Democratic Party, SDP, led by Zoran Milanovic, enjoys a slight lead and is likely to secure 62 MPs in Croatia's 151-seat parliament.
The conservative HDZ is expected to win 58 seats, while its current coalition partner, MOST, will have 12 representatives, the poll showed.
Unlike in the latest elections, HDZ is running alone, having decided to break away from its previous running mates in the Patriotic Coalition, while SDP renewed its partnership with the People's Coalition consisting of three other parties - the Liberal Democrats, the Croatian Party of Pensioners and the Croatian Peasant Party.
In the November elections, SDP and HDZ secured 56 and 59 seats, respectively, while MOST, a relative newcomer to the scene, won 19 and become a potential king-maker after the two main political rivals rejected any talk of a grand coalition.
Following consultations with Croatia's largest political forces, MOST formed a government with the HDZ-led Patriotic Coalition and appointed businessman Tihomir Oreskovic as prime minister. However, the government crumbled in June when Oreskovic lost a no-confidence vote in parliament.
The parliamentary parties were given 30 days to gather a new majority, but, instead, deteriorating relations between MOST and HDZ led to the parliament's dissolution in July, paving the way for early elections.
According to RTL, a possible outcome of the forthcoming election would be a coalition between the SDP-led People’s Coalition, which is expected to have 62 seats, the Istrian Democratic Assembly with three expected MPs, the eight representatives of the national minorities, and either Zagreb mayor Milan Bandic's party, which is projected to control three seats, or the Living Wall, with as many MPs.
Things would be less complicated if MOST decided to coalesce with SDP, however, according to RTL, this is the least likely scenario as MOST has proven to be quite conservative and rightist.
A repeat of the current HDZ-MOST union along with Milan Bandic's party and, possibly, some or all of the representatives of the national minorities, is also an option.
If RTL's predictions prove correct, HDZ is unlikely to form a majority without, once again, collaborating with MOST. However, this time around the situation is somewhat different as HDZ has replaced former controversial party leader Tomislav Karamarko with the more popular Andrej Plenkovic.
However, it also remains to be seen whether the differences between the two major parties are insurmountable and whether Croatia could be led by a grand HDZ-SDP coalition.