October 18 (SeeNews) - The results of Sunday's general election in Montenegro, which saw the reinstatement of Milo Djukanovic and his Democratic Party of Socialists, came as no real surprise but the highly fragmented party scene will make the next government less stable, professor at the University of Graz and member of the Balkans in Europe Policy Advisory Group (BiEPAG), Florian Bieber, told SeeNews on Tuesday.
Djukanovic won 41.1% of the vote, securing 35 of the 81 seats in parliament. Opposition alliance Democratic Front (DF) took 20.6% or 18 seats, while peer Key Coalition secured 10.7% or nine seats. The opposition has since said it does not recognise the results of the election because the talk of a coup in the days leading up to the vote could have been used by the ruling party to sway the voters' decision. Djukanovic has, however, declared victory.
Not only is there a fierce divide between the ruling and the opposition parties, but with over 15 parties in the opposition, it too is suffering from disunion, Bieber said in response to a SeeNews inquiry.
"The opposition is divided amongst themselves between those that are in favor of more reforms and Euro-Atlantic integration and those that favor a pro-Russian line. These divisions have contributed to the failure of the opposition," he noted.
Even though Djukanovic may decide not to take up an elected office, he will most likely continue to dominate Montenegro's political scene in the coming years, Bieber also said.
"Considering that the election results are tight, it would be probable that Djukanovic, who has made previous statements to this effect, will try to withdraw from holding an elected office—as he has tried in the past already. However, this will be difficult considering the system is held together by Djukanovic," he commented.
According to Bieber, the new government will undoubtedly pursue Euro-Atlantic integration and will certainly get the country into NATO but its commitment is questionable.
"It is often doubtful that the government is genuinely committed to the needed reforms. Thus, while Montenegro is formally advancing on the process, it is not clear that it will be able to join without more substantial democratic reforms," the analyst said.
Djukanovic, who took office in 1991 at the young age of 29, has been heralded by some for steering the country away from Serbia and Russia. His election campaign was based on NATO and EU accession as opposed to a return to instability, conflict and uncertainty, to which he claimed the opposition would lead the country.
Djukanovic was prime minister from 1991 to 1998, then president from 1998 to 2002, and prime minister again from 2003 to 2006. He took a two-year break in 2006, claiming he would retire from politics, but came back in 2008 as prime minister until 2010 when he once again stepped down, only to return in 2012 again as prime minister.