December 18 (SeeNews) - NATO's invitation to Montenegro to start accession talks is a symbolic gesture, a small shift towards creating a geopolitical impact in the Balkans and containing Russia's influence, a regional political analyst said.
Montenegro's level of democracy does not align with NATO standards, the country's security services and internal stability are insufficiently developed. However, the heightened presence of Russia and an increased resistance to a non-democratic government have accelerated the country's NATO path, Milos Solaja, a Bosnian-based political analyst, told SeeNews by email.
"Montenegro has only undergone six yearly Membership Action Plans. Croatia underwent eight. Macedonia has completed sixteen and does not yet expect an invitation," Solaja said.
Dumitru Gheorghe Mircea Cosea, a Romanian politician, economist, professor and expert in geopolitics and international relations, concurs that NATO's invitation to Montenegro comes as a message to Russia and a move to increase the Alliance's presence in the Mediterranean.
"Inviting a territory that is strategically important but which has no military importance is a signal to Russia that NATO is not giving up its enlargement policy and seeks to attract countries that may fall under Russia's influence,“ Cosea said.
He added that we are currently witnessing a war of messages, signs, speeches and statements between Russia and NATO.
Russia's need to increase its political role in the region is a result of its major interest in the former Yugoslav states and its large scale investments in this area, Solaja noted.
NATO's move has given Russia a means to increase its presence by voicing its opposing views, he added.
Russia's foreign policy is increasingly active. The government in Moscow is no longer only interested in bilateral relations, it now seeks to rally the support of organisations and socially active groups, Solaja said. "This is evident in the reactions to Montenegro's invitation where we can see a policy of negating the country's accession, a policy of neutrality and even advocates for Montenegro's accession to Serbia."
Following Montenegro's NATO invitation, thousands of its citizens took to the streets to protest the country's impending accession into the Alliance. Cosea believes that they can't do more than complain. "[..] in general in this part of Europe there are no other means to counteract NATO - only protests in the streets and speeches, which will fade as time passes."
Earlier this week, international media quoted Russia's foreign ministry as urging the Montenegrin prime minister to call a referendum on NATO accession due to, what it called, an obvious, deep division in the country over the issue.
Solaja said that Russia's clear stance on NATO will also be voiced should other countries receive an invitation to the Alliance. This attitude legitimizes Russia's political actions in the region, he said. NATO, on the other hand, is expected to respond by defining its interests for expansion far more clearly than it has to date.
The invitation to Montenegro is NATO's first expansion into this part of Europe since Albania and Croatia joined in 2009. It is only logical to assume that Montenegro's membership in NATO will shake up affairs in this region, Solaja said.
Since NATO's invitation, Montenegro's government has repeated it believes that membership in the Alliance will strongly contribute to regional stability and security. Solaja, on the other hand, says that this invitation - some 16 years after NATO bombed the territory of then Serbia and Montenegro - will bring about change in the regional order. Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Macedonia will now be nestled among NATO members.
Solaja noted that Montenegro – having declared independence in 2006 – is now doing all it can to emphasize its sovereignty and autonomy.
Serbia is in the process of developing good relations with NATO, but is persistent in holding onto its military neutrality, he added, while Bosnia is declaratively committed to NATO but faces opposing attitudes from its entity the Serb Republic.
Although many European analysts have said that NATO's move demonstrates that its door remains open to new members, Cosea believes the Alliance won't be looking to expand further in this region soon.
He added that this is a test for the Alliance to see how it fares in a very complicated part of the world.
Since its independence in 2006, Montenegro has feasted on the fruits of Russian investments. But it can now expect a major backlash, Solaja said.
Russia has already warned the Mediterranean country of its plans to suspend investments and discourage tourist trips. Solaja noted that a country’s size and power make such policies realistic and effective. “It’s a fact that this will have major consequences for Montenegro’s economy.”
Cosea, however, believes that Montenegro’s NATO invitation will increase the influence of Western capital in Montenegro. “I think that in about one year we will see branches of foreign banks and subsidiaries of Western multinationals in Montenegro," Cosea said.
He added that Montenegro has most likely asked for certain guarantees to insure its economic prosperity.
NATO said earlier that accession talks with Montenegro will start in early 2016. Once they are concluded, NATO allies will sign an accession protocol which will have to be ratified by parliaments in all 28 allies.
Among the states that emerged from the collapse of former Yugoslavia, Croatia and Slovenia have so far secured NATO membership.