March 10 (SeeNews) - Moldova's return to direct presidential elections may give vent to political passions but could turn out to be 'a poisoned apple', local political analyst, journalist and writer Petru Bogatu told SeeNews in a recent interview.
On March 4, the country's Constitutional Court ruled that the president will be elected by popular vote, restoring earlier provisions in the Constitution. So far, Moldova's president was elected for a four-year term by a majority of 60% of the MPs in the 101-seat parliament. The elections will most likely be held in the autumn, parliament president Andrian Candu said recently.
"The Constitutional Court ruling could defuse the political situation somewhat because it meets one of the major needs of the opposition," Bogatu said.
The most vocal opposition parties - the extra-parliamentary Dignity and Truth, DA, extra-parliamentary Action and Security party, PAS, have declared support for the direct election of the president.
On the other hand, Bogatu added, the court's decision raises many questions. "There are voices that the judges have exceeded their powers and put the ball in the government's field. That is why the decision could also prove to be a poisoned apple that will further complicate the situation in Chisinau."
According to the Constitutional Court's ruling, the new president should be at least 40 years old. This will prevent the leader in some of the polls - Renato Usatii, head of the extra-parliamentary pro-Russian Partidul Nostru party - from running in the presidential race. Usatii was born in 1978. "Today we were banned from standing in the election for the second time," he said in a recent Facebook post.
Two years ago, his party stood a good chance of making it to parliament but was barred from running just days before the polls amid allegations of illegal funding.
"The 40-year minimum age requirement was not included in the Constitution of 2000. Hence the conclusion that the court has acted selectively, restoring only those provisions which are convenient for the incumbent political powers. Usatii's exclusion from the presidential race was clearly intentional," the analyst commented.
The other presidential candidates that, according to public opinion surveys, enjoy strong public support are Igor Dodon, leader of the socialist party, PSRM; Andrei Nastase, leader of DA; and Maia Sandu, leader of PAS.
None of the parties has a powerful campaign machine at the moment, according to Bogatu. "The parties in power are in a free fall. They first lost credibility and then, as expected, their electorate," he commented.
Pro-European parties are just forming up and are not ready for elections, he went on to say. "As to the pro-Russian left spectrum, they risk wasting the momentum in fratricidal fights as Renato Usatii urges boycott of the elections, and Igor Dodon, on the contrary, is jubilant, hoping to seize the electorate of the former."
After the court's ruling, Dodon commented in Facebook that the court's judgment is a step towards the restoration of democracy in the country.
While many hold the opinion that a presidential election by a popular vote will improve Moldova's tarnished image abroad, Bogatu believes it will not change the way the West perceives Moldova's progress with long awaited reforms. The International Monetary Fund, the EU and Moldova's close neighbour Romania have insisted on real proof of reform in exchange for providing the financial help Moldova badly needs.
"Moldova is a parliamentary regime, and in most parliamentary republics like Germany, Italy, Israel and so on, the president is elected by parliament. Hence the impression that the move to elect the president by direct vote is nothing but a populist fad," Bogatu said. To back his claim, he pointed out that neither the European Council in its 13-point resolution on Moldova, nor Romania in the seven conditions it put forth to Chisinau for disbursing a loan, speaks of how the president should be elected.
On February 1, Romanian prime minister Dacian Ciolos sent on a letter to his Moldovan counterpart Pavel Filip putting forth seven conditions which the country should meet in order to receive a 60 million euro ($65 million) loan. This would be the first tranche of a 150 million euro financial aid package agreed in the autumn if it commits to reform.
Moldova has been trying to cope with a major banking crisis since about $1 billion went missing from three local banks in November 2014.
The tiny landlocked ex-Soviet state, with a GDP of just 88.8 billion Moldavian lei ($4.4 billion/4.01 billion euro) in the first nine months of 2015, has strong historical and political ties with its western neighbour Romania, as more than 75% of the population speaks Romanian.
The term of the current head of state, Nicolae Timofti, expires this month but he will remain at the post until new elections are held.
To be elected in the first round of the elections, a presidential candidate should collect more than 50% of the votes. If no candidate succeeds in doing so, the two top-ranked candidates face each other in a second round of voting.
In March 2012, Moldova's parliament elected Timofti, breaking a three-year political deadlock.
Bogatu, a writer and journalist, is the author of the highly acclaimed novel "Cord of Three Strands". He has contributed analysis for American publisher and global intelligence company Stratfor and is among the authors of a collection of political essays on the 2009 anti-Communist protests in Moldova, "Twitter Revolution. Episode One: Moldova". Bogatu was voted as Moldova's most popular journalist from 1995 to 2000 by the members of the Chisinau Press Club.
(1 euro = 21.8984 Moldovan lei)