December 22 (SeeNews) - Fitch Ratings said on Wednesday that it has affirmed the long-term issuer default rating (IDR) of Romanian lender BRD-Groupe Societe Generale [BSE:BRD] at 'BBB+', with a negative outlook.
BRD's Long- and Short-Term IDRs reflect potential support from its majority owner Societe Generale, it said in a press release.
BRD's Long-Term IDR is constrained by Romania's country ceiling and the negative outlook reflects that on the Romanian sovereign's IDR, the ratings agency added.
Fitch also said in the statement:
"We believe that SG would have a very strong propensity to provide support given the inclusion of BRD in SG's single-point-of-entry (SPE) resolution group and considerable reputational risk for SG from a default at BRD. Any required support for BRD would be immaterial relative to the parent's ability to provide it. Absent country risk constraints, we would equalise BRD's ratings with SG's.
In line with Fitch's applicable criteria, BRD's Short-Term IDR of 'F2' is at the lower of two options corresponding to a Long-Term IDR of 'BBB+' as the Long-Term IDR based on shareholder support is constrained by the Country Ceiling.
Rating Sensitivities
Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action/downgrade:
BRD's Long-Term IDR and SSR could be downgraded if the Romanian sovereign's Long-Term IDR and Country Ceiling were downgraded. Although not expected, the Long-Term IDR and SSR could also be downgraded following a multi-notch downgrade of SG's Long-Term IDR or if BRD becomes less strategically important to its parent.
Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive rating action/upgrade:
An upgrade of the bank's Long-Term IDR and SSR would require an upgrade of Romania's sovereign Long-Term IDR and Country Ceiling (which is unlikely given the Negative Outlook on the sovereign rating).
Best/Worst Case Rating Scenario
International scale credit ratings of Financial Institutions and Covered Bond issuers have a best-case rating upgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive direction) of three notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative direction) of four notches over three years. The complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on historical performance.
REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF RATING
The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria.
Public Ratings with Credit Linkage to other ratings
BRD's Long-Term IDR is capped by the Romanian Country Ceiling and therefore linked to the Romanian sovereign Long-Term IDR. BRD's IDRs and SR are driven by support from SG and therefore linked to the latter's IDR.
ESG CONSIDERATIONS
Unless otherwise disclosed in this section, the highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3'. This means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed by the entity."
Blue-chip BRD shares traded 0.96% higher at 16.76 lei ($3.8/3.4 euro) as at 1411 on Wednesday on the Bucharest Stock Exchange.
(1 euro =4.9489 lei)
BRD - Groupe Societe Generale SA is among the biggest banks in SEE. You can download our SEE Top 100 ranking
here or subscribe to our free Top 100 newsletter
here