December 13 (SeeNews) - Erste Group said on Wednesday it has lifted its forecast for Slovenia’s economic growth to 4.5% in 2017, from 4.0% projected in September, amid strong developments in the January-September period.
Slovenia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth remained strong in the third quarter, with the headline figure outstripping expectations and expanding by an annual 4.5%, Erste Group's analysts said in their latest macroeconomic outlook report on Slovenia. A similar outlook is expected in the last quarter.
The lender has also revised its growth for 2018 to 4.0%, from an earlier predicted 3.3%.
"Domestic demand support should remain a key growth driver ahead, while net exports should play a more neutral role vs. the 2017 performance," Erste said.
Inflation is seen at 1.4% in 2017, before rising slightly to 1.6% in 2018.
The fiscal position should further improve in 2018, amid strong tax revenues and decreasing interest expenditures, while the public debt trajectory is seen keeping its decreasing trend and moving further down to the 70% of GDP mark, Erste noted.
In terms of politics, the lender projects surprises in next year's parliamentary elections. Recent polls indicate loosing influence of the ruling SMC party, which suggests room for potential surprises and new players on the political scene, Erste said.
The lender expects that Slovenia's GDP growth will slow down slightly to 3.5% in 2019.