LJUBLJANA (Slovenia), September 11 (SeeNews) – Austria's Erste Group said on Wednesday it has revised downwards its forecast for Slovenia's economic growth in 2019 to 3.0%, due to somewhat weaker second-quarter figures, with risks to the outlook mainly linked to external uncertainties.
Despite strong domestic demand, growth further slowed down to an annual 2.5% in April-June, from 3.3% in the previous quarter, mainly due to the strong surge in import growth, thus wrapping up first-half performance a tad below the 3% mark, Erste which operates in several countries of Central and Eastern Europe besides its home market, said in a statement.
“We see the growth rate remaining at similar levels going into second half of 2019,” Erste said, adding that the structure should bring no major changes, as domestic demand is expected to remain the key growth pillar, with positive contributions coming from both private consumption and investments.
Net exports are seen remaining in the negative region, as the slowdown in Slovenia's main export markets would continue to affect the exports profile, while import dynamics should gain further traction, Erste said.
It also noted that Slovenia's inflation (at 1.5% in the first half) is expected to remain slightly above 2% for the remainder of the year, as strong domestic demand should continue to drive upside pressures.
“Overall, we see average inflation landing around the 1.8% mark in 2019, followed by similar, slightly accelerated, performance in 2020,” Erste said.