December 14 (SeeNews) - Erste Group expects the growth of Serbia's average consumer prices to accelerate to 4.8% in 2022 from an estimated 4% this year, the Austria-based banking group said.
Serbia's average consumer price inflation is seen at 2.3% in 2023, Erste said in an instant comment on Monday after the country's statistical office published the latest consumer price index (CPI) data.
"The risks to our forecast are tilted mildly to the upside, due to uncertainty regarding the energy crisis, global supply chain normalization and the possible emergence of demand-side pressures as well," Erste Group said.
Serbia's consumer prices rose by 7.5% year-on-year in November, after growing by 6.6% in October, official statistics showed on Monday. On a monthly comparison basis, Serbia's consumer price index (CPI) went up 0.9% in November, after rising by the same rate in October.
"Looking at the contributions, the rise in food prices and transport prices together contributed almost 5pp of the increase in the overall headline figure, hence reflecting still dominant supply-side pressures. The current outlook still suggests this pressure to be of a more transitory character, although the overall intensity is higher than earlier projected," Erste said.
Last month, Erste Group said it expects Serbia's central bank to keep its key repo rate unchanged at 1.0% throughout 2022, due to the low core inflation and its strategy to hold a firm grip on exchange rate stability.