Most Bulgarian stock indices rise, AmonRa Energy shines
Albania's gross foreign debt rises 2.4% y/y in Q3
Bulgaria's Puldin Holding acquires TIZ Invest
Albania sells 29.5 mln euro of 2028 T-notes
Bulgaria's 614 mln euro push-pull trains tender gets two bids
Dec 14, 2017 18:29 EEST
December 14 (SeeNews) - Erste Group said it has lowered its forecast for Serbia’s economic expansion in 2017 to 1.8%, from 2.1% projected in September, as the performance in the first three quarters of the year was disappointing.
The forecast for Serbia’s economic growth in 2018 was revised downwards to 2.9% from 3.0%, while a 3.0% rise is expected in 2019, Erste Group analysts said in their latest macroeconomic outlook report on Serbia published on the bank's website on Wednesday.
"GDP performance in the first three quarters came in below all expectations, with the figures standing at 1.1% y/y, 1.4% y/y and 2.1% y/y, respectively. The detailed structure reveals that such disappointing developments were mostly a result of weather-related one-offs which disrupted agricultural and energy production in the first half of the year," the analysts said.
Looking forward, Erste Groups analysts see the growth figure picking up with strengthening domestic demand playing the key role, while net exports should play a more neutral role. The consumption profile should be supported by the better labour market, an increase in wages and continued support from consumer loans, Erste Group noted. "Investments should be supported by the gradual recovery of corporate loans, the somewhat better business climate and announced public investment cycle."
Finally, the stable economic outlook for main trade partners will be supportive for exports, but stronger domestic demand suggests more upside pressures on imports, so we envisage negative contribution from net exports, Erste Group said.
In September, Erste lowered its forecast for Serbia’s economic expansion in 2017 to 2.1%, from 2.5% projected in June, due to disappointing figures in the first half of the year.
You have run out of free articles this month.
Sign up in for
and get ten (10) free articles per month or sign up for
and get unlimited access.
Browse our free newsletter options