May 7 (SeeNews) - The European Commission said on Tuesday it has slightly increased its forecast for Montenegro's economic growth in 2019 - to 2.9% from 2.8% predicted in November, to be driven by construction and tourism.
"The forecast baseline is for a significant deceleration of investment growth due to the completion of a major highway section in 2020," the Commission said in its Spring 2019 Economic Forecast report.
The increase is backed by expected growth in tourism and expansion of new industrial capacities that will favourably impact domestic demand and exports, the EU's executive body noted, adding that slower imports would result in a narrowing of the large current account gap.
"Moreover, the completion of the highway works is also expected to turn the budget into surplus and reduce the public debt ratio. However, as a downside risk, expenditure pressures could threaten fiscal consolidation in the run-up to parliamentary elections in 2020."
Montenegro's main economic indicators outlook (pct change):
|
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
GDP |
4.9 |
2.9 |
3.1 |
Private consumption |
4.5 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
Public consumption |
2.5 |
1.3 |
2.4 |
Gross fixed capital formation |
14.8 |
5.8 |
2 |
Unemployment rate (as % of total labour force) |
15.5 |
14.8 |
15 |