November 8 (SeeNews) - Bulgaria's economy is expected to grow by 3.5% in 2018, the European Commission said on Thursday, lowering its July forecast of a 3.8% rise.
In 2019, Bulgaria's gross domestic product in 2019 will increase by 3.7%, the EU executive body said in its Autumn Economic Forecast, affirming its earlier projection.
In 2020, the Bulgarian economy is expected to expand by 3.6%.
Domestic demand will remain the main growth driver throughout the whole period.
"Risks to the growth outlook are tilted to the downside. These mainly concern external demand, which could be hampered by political and economic risks in some major trading partners," the European Commission said.
"On the positive side, a tightening labour market could lead to higher-than-expected increases in wages and income, which in turn could have a stronger positive impact on private consumption," the Commission added.
Inflation is expected to reach 2.6% in 2018, followed by a slowdown to 2.0% next year and 1.8% in 2020.
The unemployment rate is projected to fall further, from 6.0% this year to 5.7% in 2020.
Bulgaria is also expected to continue recording budget surpluses over the three-year period.
Details follow (pct change):
|
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
GDP |
3.5 |
3.7 |
3.6 |
Private consumption |
6.5 |
4.3 |
3.8 |
Public consumption |
3.9 |
5.2 |
4.3 |
Gross fixed capital formation |
9.0 |
6.8 |
5.2 |
Exports |
0.7 |
2.9 |
3.4 |
Imports |
4.8 |
4.6 |
4.2 |
Unemployment rate (%) |
6.0 |
5.8 |
5.7 |
Current account balance (%) |
5.9 |
4.6 |
5.1 |
source: European Commission