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EC lifts Albania's 2018 economic growth forecast to 4.1% - table

EC lifts Albania's 2018 economic growth forecast to 4.1% - table EU Commission headquarters in Brussels; Author: Radomir Ralev

TIRANA (Albania), November 8 (SeeNews) – The European Commission said on Thursday it has increased its forecast for Albania's economic expansion in 2018 to 4.1% from 3.6% predicted in May.

Economic growth is expected to remain solid, driven mainly by private consumption, the European Commission said in its Autumn 2018 Economic Forecast.

Real GDP growth is expected to slightly slow to 3.9% in each of 2019 and 2020 mainly on account of lower electricity production and the completion of two large energy projects, the Commission added.

“The strengthening Albanian currency is likely to weigh on export growth. The high level of public debt as a share of GDP is forecast to continue its gradual decline.”

The Commission also noted that a slower than announced reduction of public debt would undermine financial markets’ new confidence and put at risk infrastructure investments which are key for sustaining growth and energy supplies.

“A slowdown of reforms could dampen the private demand while exports could suffer from lower than projected growth of Albania’s major trade partner Italy.”

Details on Albania from the European Commission's Autumn 2018 Economic Forecast follow (pct change):

  2018 2019 2020
GDP growth 4.1 3.9 3.9
Private consumption 4.0 3.7 3.7
Public consumption 2.4 2.7 2.6
Gross fixed capital formation 4.9 4.1 4.6
Exports 4.5  4.3 5.1
Imports 4.4 3.8 4.5
Unemployment 12.7 11.1 10.6
Harmonized consumer prices 2.3 2.6 2.8
General govt gross debt 69.9 67.6 65.2