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Croatian think-tank cuts Q3 GDP growth forecast to 2.4%

Author Iskra Pavlova
Croatian think-tank cuts Q3 GDP growth forecast to 2.4% GDP, Creative Commons.

ZAGREB (Croatia), October 16 (SeeNews) - Croatian think-tank Institute of Economics Zagreb (EIZ) said it is lowering its forecast for the country's economic growth in the third quarter to 2.4% year-on-year based on data for July and August, from 3.2% predicted earlier.

The previous forecast was made in September when the July reading of EIZ's Coincident Economic  Index, CEIZ, was up by 0.3 index points compared to June, and increased by 0.6 index point compared to July 2018.

According to most recent data, the index cumulatively rose in July and August by 0.6 index points compared to the second quarter of 2019, and was 1.4 index points lower compared to the average index value in the third quarter of 2018, EIZ said in its monthly CEIZ review published on Tuesday.

"Based on CEIZ index movements, we expect the annual growth rate of real GDP in the third quarter of 2019 to amount to 2.4 percent, which is equal to the official growth rate of real GDP in the second quarter of this year," the think-tank said.

In seasonally-adjusted terms, the third-quarter GDP is seen up by 0.6% compared to the preceding quarter.

Yet, EIZ will be able to calculate the third-quarter GDP growth with greater certainty once the CEIZ index value for September becomes available.

The CEIZ index aims to provide timely information on the current business cycle conditions. Its value changes simultaneously with the business cycle, thus serving as an indicator of the present state of the economy. 

The index has been decreasing in annual terms since January 2019, but in the first two months of the third quarter (July and August) this decrease accelerated in comparison to the previous three months, EIZ said.

The Croatian economy expanded by a surprising 3.9% on the year in the first quarter of 2019 and cooled down to a 2.4% annual increase in the second quarter, the country's statistical office reported earlier. It is expected to release data for the third quarter in late November.

The Croatian GDP is seen expanding by 3.0% this year by the Croatian central bank, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, faster than last year's growth of 2.6%.