July 22 (SeeNews) - The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development said on Friday it has raised its 2011 economic growth forecast for seven countries of Southeastern Europe (SEE) to an average 2.3% from 2.2% projected in May.
The EBRD also revised its 2012 forecast for economic growth in the seven countries - Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania and Serbia - to an average 3.6% from 3.7% projected in May, it said in its July Economic Outlook for the countries in the EBRD region which stretches from central Europe and the Western Balkans to central Asia.
“While all SEE economies are expected to grow this year, the rates of growth are mostly still far below pre-crisis levels, and significantly lower than the average for the whole transition region,” the EBRD said.
“The recovery has been export-led, reflecting both a low base effect from the sharp downturn during the crisis and the renewed global demand for commodities from the region.”
It added that most SEE countries continue to face fiscal challenges and that there is significant risks from potential contagion effects from the Greek debt crisis.
“So far, spillovers have been contained but they have the potential to disrupt economic activity in the region if the situation in Greece deteriorates further.”
Following are EBRD’s latest revised projections for the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) in the seven SEE countries plus Croatia, Moldova and Slovenia for 2010, 2011 and 2012 (year-on-year percentage change):
|
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
Albania |
+3.8 |
+2.5 |
+3.1 |
Bosnia and Herzegovina |
-3.0 |
+2.0 |
+2.5 |
Bulgaria |
+0.2 |
+2.3 |
+3.7 |
Croatia |
-1.2 |
+1.1 |
+2.8 |
Macedonia |
+1.8 |
+3.1 |
+3.0 |
Moldova |
+6.9 |
+5.5 |
+4.5 |
Montenegro |
+1.1 |
+2.1 |
+3.0 |
Romania |
-1.3 |
+1.9 |
+3.8 |
Serbia |
+1.0 |
+3.3 |
+4.1 |
Slovenia |
+1.2 |
+2.0 |
+2.0 |